Los Angeles Lakers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints25
- LeBron JamesAssists7
- Deandre AytonRebounds8
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points21
- Day'Ron SharpeAssists5
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–109
- Q47.3Ziaire Williams lost ball turnover (Bronny James steals)125–109
- Q425.3Dalton Knecht makes dunk (Jarred Vanderbilt assists)125–109
- Q440.5Danny Wolf makes running layup (Nolan Traore assists)123–109
- Q443.4Nolan Traore defensive rebound123–107
- Q447.1Dalton Knecht misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot123–107
- Q41:05Egor Demin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Danny Wolf assists)123–107
- Q41:14Danny Wolf defensive rebound123–104
- Q41:17Drew Timme misses 25-foot three point jumper123–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:35Egor Demin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Noah Clowney assists)LAL 0 – 3 BKN · BKN 26% → 31% +5BKN 26% → 31%+5 pts
- Q111:15Luka Doncic makes 10-foot fade away jump shotLAL 2 – 3 BKN · LAL 69% → 72% +4LAL 69% → 72%+4 pts
- Q110:27Michael Porter Jr. makes 2-foot reverse layup (Nic Claxton assists)LAL 4 – 5 BKN · BKN 25% → 28% +3BKN 25% → 28%+3 pts
- Q110:09LeBron James makes 14-foot two point shotLAL 6 – 5 BKN · LAL 72% → 75% +3LAL 72% → 75%+3 pts
- Q18:50Luka Doncic makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotLAL 11 – 7 BKN · LAL 75% → 80% +5LAL 75% → 80%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -7.5
- ML LAL -340 / BKN +270
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -7
- LAL 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- LAL: Elo 75.0%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -286
- BKN +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 115.5 – 108.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1335 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | −30 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +190 Elo | LAL 75.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 75.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 75.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 107.130th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 114.713th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −7.626th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 108.627th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 116.426th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.2 | Pace | 97.928th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 6th of 3017–11 | Road vs home | 6–1730th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150610th of 30 |
| 14th of 301513 | Elo rating | 133529th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–22 | 24–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–10 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 8–12 | 22–24 |
| Overs–unders | 27–21 | 20–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–2 BKN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.