Philadelphia 76ers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints33
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists6
- Joel EmbiidRebounds9
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints28
- Devin BookerAssists9
- Royce O'NealeRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–103
- Q411.8Royce O'Neale out of bounds bad pass turnover109–103
- Q411.8Quentin Grimes enters the game for Joel Embiid109–103
- Q411.8Royce O'Neale enters the game for Oso Ighodaro109–103
- Q411.8Collin Gillespie enters the game for Mark Williams109–103
- Q411.8Suns Full timeout109–103
- Q411.8Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2109–103
- Q411.8Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Collin Gillespie108–103
- Q411.8Mark Williams enters the game for Royce O'Neale108–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:35Tyrese Maxey makes 23-foot three point jumperPHI 21 – 17 PHX · PHI 48% → 54% +7PHI 48% → 54%+7 pts
- Q154.0Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 24 – 22 PHX · PHI 43% → 50% +7PHI 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q211:06Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)PHI 27 – 24 PHX · PHI 46% → 53% +7PHI 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q23:03Jordan Goodwin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHI 49 – 41 PHX · PHX 25% → 32% +7PHX 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q21:59Joel Embiid makes 28-foot three pointerPHI 54 – 43 PHX · PHI 68% → 75% +7PHI 68% → 75%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -2.5
- ML PHI +114 / PHX -135
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3.5
- PHX 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.7 pts
- PHX: Elo 63.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- PHX -123
- PHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 111.0 – 113.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | +31 | PHI: Missing Paul George −12 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +99 Elo | PHX 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 59.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 113.824th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 111.45th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +2.310th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 113.314th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 111.08th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.0 | Pace | 100.223rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 8th of 3014–9 | Road vs home | 17–86th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 30 |
| 15th of 301502 | Elo rating | 156510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+43 Elo- Paul George suspended by league−12 Elo
Suns
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–21 | 34–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–11 | 17–8 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders | 26–25 | 22–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–4 PHX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.