Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Pat SpencerPoints20
- Gui SantosAssists7
- Gary Payton IIRebounds8
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints24
- Royce O'NealeAssists5
- Mark WilliamsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–97
- Q40.0(00:00) [Warriors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)101–97
- Q40.0De'Anthony Melton makes running layup (Moses Moody assists)101–97
- Q46.1Gary Payton II defensive rebound99–97
- Q49.4Dillon Brooks misses 29-foot three point step back jumpshot99–97
- Q428.7Draymond Green enters the game for Pat Spencer99–97
- Q428.7Gary Payton II enters the game for Gui Santos99–97
- Q428.7Suns Full timeout99–97
- Q428.7Gui Santos makes running layup99–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:42Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotGS 71 – 70 PHX · PHX 45% → 56% +11PHX 45% → 56%+11 pts
- Q44:17Al Horford makes 26-foot running jump shot (Pat Spencer assists)GS 91 – 95 PHX · GS 9% → 21% +12GS 9% → 21%+12 pts
- Q42:18Al Horford makes 8-foot two point shotGS 95 – 97 PHX · GS 15% → 29% +14GS 15% → 29%+14 pts
- Q455.8De'Anthony Melton makes 1-foot two point shotGS 97 – 97 PHX · GS 21% → 48% +27GS 21% → 48%+27 pts
- Q428.7Gui Santos makes running layupGS 99 – 97 PHX · GS 48% → 84% +36GS 48% → 84%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -5.5
- ML GS +180 / PHX -218
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -4.5
- PHX 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- PHX: Elo 67.8%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- PHX -192
- GS +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 103.5 – 109.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −73 | −14 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | GS crossed 1 time zone and PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +130 Elo | PHX 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 63.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 114.122nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 111.65th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +2.510th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 113.414th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 111.07th of 30 |
| 14th of 30102.0 | Pace | 100.421st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 19th of 3010–15 | Road vs home | 17–76th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 12th of 301541 | Elo rating | 15758th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–27 | 34–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–20 | 17–7 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders | 30–21 | 22–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 5–6 PHX in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Dec 20PHX 116 @ GS 119Picked GS 67%Hit
- Dec 18GS 98 @ PHX 99Picked GS 54%Miss
- Nov 4PHX 107 @ GS 118Picked GS 79%Hit
- Apr 8GS 133 @ PHX 95Picked GS 79%Hit
- Jan 31PHX 130 @ GS 105Picked PHX 57%Hit
- Dec 28PHX 105 @ GS 109Picked GS 68%Hit
- Nov 30GS 105 @ PHX 113Picked PHX 51%Hit
- Feb 10PHX 112 @ GS 113Picked GS 55%Hit