Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints30
- Andrew NembhardAssists10
- Aaron NesmithRebounds8
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints40
- Josh HartAssists11
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds14
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game137–134
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime137–134
- OT1.0Quenton Jackson enters the game for Kobe Brown137–134
- OT1.0Pacers defensive team rebound137–134
- OT1.0Landry Shamet misses free throw 2 of 2137–134
- OT1.0Kobe Brown enters the game for Quenton Jackson137–134
- OT1.0Knicks offensive team rebound137–134
- OT1.0Landry Shamet misses free throw 1 of 2137–134
- OT1.0Aaron Nesmith personal take foul137–134
- OT3.9Quenton Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2137–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:37Andrew Nembhard makes driving layupIND 119 – 116 NY · IND 51% → 68% +17IND 51% → 68%+17 pts
- Q41:49Pascal Siakam makes 12-foot two point shotIND 121 – 117 NY · IND 64% → 82% +17IND 64% → 82%+17 pts
- Q41:31Jalen Brunson makes driving layupIND 121 – 119 NY · NY 16% → 33% +18NY 16% → 33%+18 pts
- Q413.2Pascal Siakam makes 17-foot pullup jump shotIND 123 – 120 NY · IND 76% → 99% +23IND 76% → 99%+23 pts
- Q40.2Karl-Anthony Towns makes free throw 2 of 2IND 124 – 124 NY · NY <1% → 50% +50NY <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- NY -11.5
- ML IND +410 / NY -550
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -8.5
- NY 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- NY: Elo 79.7%, market 81.2%
- Fair odds
- NY -432
- IND +432 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 108.0 – 119.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1401 | 1614 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | −22 | IND: Missing Obi Toppin −11 · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +238 Elo | NY 79.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 73.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 74.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 81.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 117.59th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.5 | Points allowed | 111.86th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.9 | Margin | +5.64th of 30 |
| 30th of 30107.5 | Offense rating | 117.43rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 111.711th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.4 | Pace | 99.624th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 29th of 303–22 | Road vs home | 21–62nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 148827th of 30 |
| 25th of 301401 | Elo rating | 16145th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−11 Elo- Obi Toppin stress fracture right foot−11 Elo
Knicks
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–27 | 29–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 25–20 |
| Underdog | 23–22 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 21–32 | 27–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 11–9 NY in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.
- Dec 18NY 114 @ IND 113Picked NY 59%Hit
- May 31NY 108 @ IND 125PlayoffsPicked IND 61%Hit
- May 29IND 94 @ NY 111PlayoffsPicked NY 63%Hit
- May 27NY 121 @ IND 130PlayoffsPicked IND 58%Hit
- May 25NY 106 @ IND 100PlayoffsPicked IND 52%Miss
- May 23IND 114 @ NY 109PlayoffsPicked NY 68%Miss
- May 21IND 138 @ NY 135PlayoffsPicked NY 62%Miss
- Feb 11NY 128 @ IND 115Picked NY 54%Hit