Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints18
- T.J. McConnellAssists7
- Micah PotterRebounds8
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints25
- Scottie BarnesAssists6
- Scottie BarnesRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–122
- Q43.0shot clock turnover104–122
- Q427.3Ben Sheppard makes running layup (Jarace Walker assists)104–122
- Q429.5Jay Huff defensive rebound102–122
- Q433.2Alijah Martin misses driving layup102–122
- Q453.6Jay Huff makes free throw 2 of 2102–122
- Q453.6Jay Huff makes free throw 1 of 2101–122
- Q453.6Alijah Martin personal foul100–122
- Q457.3Trayce Jackson-Davis makes free throw 2 of 2100–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:14Jamal Shead makes 30-foot three pointerIND 30 – 34 TOR · TOR 72% → 78% +6TOR 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q23:14Jay Huff makes 22-foot three point jumper (Aaron Nesmith assists)IND 41 – 37 TOR · IND 34% → 41% +8IND 34% → 41%+8 pts
- Q21:53Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)IND 45 – 42 TOR · TOR 52% → 61% +8TOR 52% → 61%+8 pts
- Q39:16RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)IND 50 – 57 TOR · TOR 77% → 84% +6TOR 77% → 84%+6 pts
- Q38:55Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (Johnny Furphy assists)IND 53 – 57 TOR · IND 16% → 23% +6IND 16% → 23%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -7.5
- ML IND +275 / TOR -345
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -7
- TOR 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 75.2%, market 74.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -291
- IND +291 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 109.5 – 117.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1408 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −33 | +41 | IND: Missing Obi Toppin −11 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +193 Elo | TOR 75.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 73.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 73.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 74.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.7 | Points scored | 114.023rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.4 | Points allowed | 112.47th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.7 | Margin | +1.614th of 30 |
| 30th of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 112.618th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 111.19th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.4 | Pace | 100.420th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–21 | Road vs home | 15–1215th of 30 |
| 6th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 30 |
| 25th of 301408 | Elo rating | 147918th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−33 Elo- Obi Toppin stress fracture right foot−11 Elo
Raptors
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–26 | 27–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 13–17 |
| Underdog | 23–21 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 21–31 | 22–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 3–7 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.
- Jan 14TOR 115 @ IND 101Picked IND 52%Miss
- Nov 26IND 95 @ TOR 97Picked TOR 76%Hit
- Nov 15TOR 129 @ IND 111Picked TOR 68%Hit
- Feb 26TOR 91 @ IND 111Picked IND 82%Hit
- Dec 3IND 111 @ TOR 122Picked IND 58%Miss
- Nov 18IND 119 @ TOR 130Picked IND 58%Miss
- Apr 9IND 140 @ TOR 123Picked IND 73%Hit
- Feb 26TOR 130 @ IND 122Picked IND 69%Miss