Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints22
- Andrew NembhardAssists8
- Jarace WalkerRebounds9
Bucks- Kevin Porter Jr.Points23
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists8
- Jericho SimsRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–105
- Q42.5Bobby Portis defensive rebound99–105
- Q44.8Johnny Furphy misses 26-foot three point jumper99–105
- Q49.7Bobby Portis makes 1-foot layup (Gary Harris assists)99–105
- Q411.0Gary Harris enters the game for Jericho Sims99–103
- Q411.0Bucks Full timeout99–103
- Q411.0Bucks Full timeout99–103
- Q413.6Pascal Siakam makes 1-foot two point shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)99–103
- Q422.1Ben Sheppard defensive rebound97–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:30AJ Green makes 27-foot three pointerIND 43 – 48 MIL · MIL 54% → 62% +8MIL 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q45:07Andrew Nembhard makes driving layup (Ben Sheppard assists)IND 84 – 89 MIL · IND 14% → 22% +8IND 14% → 22%+8 pts
- Q44:27Ryan Rollins makes 14-foot pullup jump shotIND 84 – 91 MIL · MIL 80% → 88% +8MIL 80% → 88%+8 pts
- Q44:11Andrew Nembhard makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 87 – 91 MIL · IND 11% → 25% +13IND 11% → 25%+13 pts
- Q43:26Kevin Porter Jr. makes two point shotIND 87 – 93 MIL · MIL 78% → 88% +10MIL 78% → 88%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- IND -1.5
- ML IND -122 / MIL +102
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -1
- IND 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- IND: Elo 45.5%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- IND -111
- MIL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 112.5 – 111.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −32 | −62 | IND: Missing Obi Toppin −11 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +32 Elo | MIL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30110.9 | Points scored | 112.127th of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 116.117th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.7 | Margin | −3.924th of 30 |
| 30th of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 111.922nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 115.723rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.6 | Pace | 99.725th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–20 | Road vs home | 11–1220th of 30 |
| 6th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 30 |
| 25th of 301415 | Elo rating | 144023rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−32 Elo- Obi Toppin right foot−11 Elo
Bucks
−62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–25 | 21–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 23–21 | 14–14 |
| Overs–unders | 21–30 | 20–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 13–9 MIL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 22.
- Dec 23MIL 111 @ IND 94Picked MIL 50%Hit
- Nov 3MIL 117 @ IND 115Picked MIL 69%Hit
- Apr 29MIL 118 @ IND 119PlayoffsPicked IND 76%Hit
- Apr 27IND 129 @ MIL 103PlayoffsPicked MIL 62%Miss
- Apr 25IND 101 @ MIL 117PlayoffsPicked MIL 64%Hit
- Apr 22MIL 115 @ IND 123PlayoffsPicked IND 61%Hit
- Apr 19MIL 98 @ IND 117PlayoffsPicked IND 67%Hit
- Mar 15IND 119 @ MIL 126Picked MIL 59%Hit