Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Anfernee SimonsPoints22
- Yuki KawamuraAssists7
- Guerschon YabuseleRebounds11
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints33
- Jamal SheadAssists8
- Brandon IngramRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–123
- Q43.9Yuki Kawamura bad pass
turnover (Jonathan Mogbo steals)107–123
- Q426.2Jonathan Mogbo enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles107–123
- Q426.2A.J. Lawson enters the game for Immanuel Quickley107–123
- Q426.2Ja'Kobe Walter personal take foul107–123
- Q428.1Collin Murray-Boyles makes layup (Jamison Battle assists)107–123
- Q451.6Patrick Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Lachlan Olbrich assists)107–121
- Q41:13Immanuel Quickley makes 17-foot two point shot104–121
- Q41:36Alijah Martin enters the game for Brandon Ingram104–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:03Jaden Ivey makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotCHI 70 – 74 TOR · CHI 17% → 24% +7CHI 17% → 24%+7 pts
- Q37:28Anfernee Simons makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)CHI 73 – 76 TOR · CHI 19% → 27% +7CHI 19% → 27%+7 pts
- Q36:51Matas Buzelis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)CHI 76 – 76 TOR · CHI 27% → 35% +9CHI 27% → 35%+9 pts
- Q36:39Brandon Ingram makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)CHI 76 – 79 TOR · TOR 65% → 73% +9TOR 65% → 73%+9 pts
- Q35:36Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)CHI 76 – 84 TOR · TOR 79% → 85% +7TOR 79% → 85%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -7.5
- ML CHI +250 / TOR -310
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -4
- TOR 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 66.1%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -265
- CHI +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 110.0 – 117.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −43 | +21 | CHI: Missing Josh Giddey −35, Tre Jones −19 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +116 Elo | TOR 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 66.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 113.823rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 112.58th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.0 | Margin | +1.315th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 112.420th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 111.19th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.1 | Pace | 100.520th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–16 | Road vs home | 14–1217th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 30 |
| 24th of 301426 | Elo rating | 147019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−43 Elo- Josh Giddey left hamstring strain−35 Elo
- Tre Jones left hamstring strain−19 Elo
Raptors
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–27 | 26–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–17 | 12–17 |
| Underdog | 18–10 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 23–28 | 21–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 6–2 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Apr 1TOR 118 @ CHI 137Picked CHI 61%Hit
- Feb 28TOR 115 @ CHI 125Picked CHI 52%Hit
- Jan 31CHI 122 @ TOR 106Picked TOR 60%Miss
- Dec 16CHI 122 @ TOR 121Picked CHI 51%Hit
- Jan 30TOR 118 @ CHI 107Picked CHI 70%Miss
- Jan 18CHI 116 @ TOR 110Picked CHI 56%Hit
- Nov 24CHI 108 @ TOR 121Picked TOR 65%Hit
- Oct 27TOR 103 @ CHI 104Picked CHI 54%Hit