Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints42
- Cade CunninghamAssists13
- Tobias HarrisRebounds10
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints33
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–111
- Q412.0Javonte Green offensive rebound126–111
- Q413.7Ausar Thompson misses running layup126–111
- Q417.9Jose Alvarado bad pass
turnover (Ausar Thompson steals)126–111
- Q432.6Ausar Thompson makes running layup (Cade Cunningham assists)126–111
- Q436.3Cade Cunningham defensive rebound124–111
- Q438.2OG Anunoby misses 22-foot three point jumper124–111
- Q446.6Paul Reed makes free throw 2 of 2124–111
- Q446.6Javonte Green enters the game for Tobias Harris123–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:32Duncan Robinson makes 24-foot running jump shot (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 65 – 60 NY · DET 50% → 60% +9DET 50% → 60%+9 pts
- Q37:36Duncan Robinson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 68 – 60 NY · DET 60% → 69% +9DET 60% → 69%+9 pts
- Q35:54Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointerDET 72 – 67 NY · NY 30% → 39% +9NY 30% → 39%+9 pts
- Q35:38Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)DET 75 – 67 NY · DET 61% → 71% +9DET 61% → 71%+9 pts
- Q31:57Ronald Holland II makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 86 – 75 NY · DET 74% → 83% +8DET 74% → 83%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NY -3.5
- ML DET +136 / NY -162
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- NY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- NY: Elo 50.9%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- NY -146
- DET +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 107.5 – 111.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1630 | 1622 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | +7 | DET: Missing Jalen Duren −24 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +6 Elo | NY 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 52.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 118.17th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 111.96th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.0 | Margin | +6.34th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 117.63rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.9 | Defense rating | 111.410th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.8 | Pace | 99.724th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3018–7 | Road vs home | 21–74th of 30 |
| 27th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 148528th of 30 |
| 4th of 301630 | Elo rating | 16225th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+28 Elo- Jalen Duren suspended by league−24 Elo
Knicks
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–24 | 30–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 20–23 | 26–21 |
| Underdog | 9–1 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 21–32 | 29–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 7–8 NY in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.
- Feb 6NY 80 @ DET 118Picked DET 66%Hit
- Jan 5NY 90 @ DET 121Picked NY 53%Miss
- May 1NY 116 @ DET 113PlayoffsPicked DET 51%Miss
- Apr 29DET 106 @ NY 103PlayoffsPicked NY 64%Miss
- Apr 27NY 94 @ DET 93PlayoffsPicked DET 56%Miss
- Apr 24NY 118 @ DET 116PlayoffsPicked NY 54%Hit
- Apr 21DET 100 @ NY 94PlayoffsPicked NY 70%Miss
- Apr 19DET 112 @ NY 123PlayoffsPicked NY 70%Hit