Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints28
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Tobias HarrisRebounds12
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints18
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists5
- Scottie BarnesRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–95
- Q42.1Marcus Sasser bad pass
turnover (Ja'Kobe Walter steals)113–95
- Q423.4Tolu Smith defensive rebound113–95
- Q429.8Alijah Martin misses 14-foot two point shot113–95
- Q441.2Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)113–95
- Q41:05Alijah Martin makes 7-foot two point shot110–95
- Q41:14Marcus Sasser makes two point shot110–93
- Q41:36Gradey Dick makes free throw 2 of 2108–93
- Q41:36Gradey Dick makes free throw 1 of 2108–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:22Paul Reed makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 3 – 0 TOR · DET 49% → 55% +6DET 49% → 55%+6 pts
- Q110:22Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paul Reed assists)DET 8 – 2 TOR · DET 55% → 61% +6DET 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q211:34Ja'Kobe Walter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)DET 29 – 22 TOR · TOR 28% → 34% +6TOR 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q210:51Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot three point jumper (Javonte Green assists)DET 32 – 24 TOR · DET 61% → 68% +7DET 61% → 68%+7 pts
- Q210:19Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot three pointer (Tolu Smith assists)DET 35 – 26 TOR · DET 64% → 70% +7DET 64% → 70%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -1.5
- ML DET -105 / TOR -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2.5
- TOR 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 39.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 111.0 – 112.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1619 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +34 | +56 | DET: Missing Jalen Duren −28 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +75 Elo | DET 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 114.123rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 112.26th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.8 | Margin | +1.914th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 112.716th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.0 | Defense rating | 110.96th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.0 | Pace | 100.420th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3017–7 | Road vs home | 16–1214th of 30 |
| 28th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 4th of 301619 | Elo rating | 148517th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+34 Elo- Jalen Duren suspended by league−28 Elo
Raptors
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–24 | 28–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–23 | 14–17 |
| Underdog | 8–1 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 21–31 | 22–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–1 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.