Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints32
- James HardenAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds14
Hornets- Kon KnueppelPoints33
- Sion JamesAssists7
- Ryan KalkbrennerRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–113
- Q49.6Jarrett Allen defensive rebound118–113
- Q411.8LaMelo Ball misses 22-foot three point jumper118–113
- Q415.3LaMelo Ball enters the game for PJ Hall118–113
- Q415.3Pat Connaughton enters the game for Ryan Kalkbrenner118–113
- Q415.3Hornets Full timeout118–113
- Q415.3Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2118–113
- Q415.3PJ Hall enters the game for LaMelo Ball117–113
- Q415.3Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2117–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:02Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)CLE 93 – 89 CHA · CLE 62% → 74% +12CLE 62% → 74%+12 pts
- Q48:33James Harden makes 24-foot three pointer (Nae'Qwan Tomlin assists)CLE 100 – 95 CHA · CLE 66% → 78% +12CLE 66% → 78%+12 pts
- Q46:33Brandon Miller makes 22-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)CLE 100 – 98 CHA · CHA 20% → 33% +14CHA 20% → 33%+14 pts
- Q45:24Jarrett Allen makes layupCLE 104 – 101 CHA · CLE 61% → 73% +11CLE 61% → 73%+11 pts
- Q44:43Dean Wade makes 22-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 107 – 101 CHA · CLE 73% → 87% +14CLE 73% → 87%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -5.5
- ML CLE -218 / CHA +180
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.9%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -192
- CHA +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 117.5 – 112.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1631 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CHA and CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −18 | +8 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Missing Moussa Diabate −21, Miles Bridges −17 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +27 Elo | CLE 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 59.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30119.8 | Points scored | 115.415th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 113.610th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.5 | Margin | +1.811th of 30 |
| 5th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 114.711th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.8 | Pace | 100.122nd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3016–10 | Road vs home | 12–1522nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149324th of 30 |
| 4th of 301631 | Elo rating | 154111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+8 Elo- Moussa Diabate suspended by league−21 Elo
- Miles Bridges suspended by league−17 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–32 | 34–22 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 18–27 | 9–6 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 25–16 |
| Overs–unders | 26–30 | 21–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 7–3 CHA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Jan 21CLE 94 @ CHA 87Picked CLE 58%Hit
- Dec 22CHA 132 @ CLE 139Picked CLE 76%Hit
- Dec 14CHA 119 @ CLE 111Picked CLE 83%Miss
- Mar 7CLE 118 @ CHA 117Picked CLE 91%Hit
- Jan 5CHA 105 @ CLE 115Picked CLE 89%Hit
- Dec 7CLE 116 @ CHA 102Picked CLE 88%Hit
- Nov 17CHA 114 @ CLE 128Picked CLE 79%Hit
- Apr 14CHA 120 @ CLE 110Picked CLE 67%Miss