Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points14
- Danny WolfAssists7
- Danny WolfRebounds6
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints17
- James HardenAssists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game84–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter84–112
- Q48.5shot clock turnover84–112
- Q430.5Larry Nance Jr. defensive rebound84–112
- Q433.2Egor Demin misses 25-foot three point jumper84–112
- Q449.7Nets offensive team rebound84–112
- Q449.7Egor Demin misses technical free throw84–112
- Q449.7Larry Nance Jr. technical foul84–112
- Q450.2Jalen Wilson defensive rebound84–112
- Q450.2Keon Ellis misses 23-foot three point jumper84–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:21Dean Wade makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)BKN 0 – 4 CLE · CLE 89% → 91% +3CLE 89% → 91%+3 pts
- Q110:02Noah Clowney makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nolan Traore assists)BKN 3 – 8 CLE · BKN 6% → 8% +2BKN 6% → 8%+2 pts
- Q19:19Dean Wade makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)BKN 3 – 12 CLE · CLE 93% → 95% +2CLE 93% → 95%+2 pts
- Q18:12Noah Clowney makes 23-foot three point jumper (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)BKN 8 – 16 CLE · BKN 4% → 6% +2BKN 4% → 6%+2 pts
- Q15:48Jaylon Tyson makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)BKN 12 – 21 CLE · CLE 92% → 94% +2CLE 92% → 94%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -15.5
- ML BKN +675 / CLE -1050
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -13
- CLE 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 89.4%, market 87.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -708
- BKN +708 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 107.0 – 122.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1337 | 1628 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | +23 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +370 Elo | CLE 89.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 85.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 86.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 87.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.7 | Points scored | 120.02nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 115.917th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.3 | Margin | +4.18th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 116.05th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 112.112th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.4 | Pace | 102.99th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 24th of 307–19 | Road vs home | 18–1111th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301337 | Elo rating | 16284th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–27 | 23–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 17–27 |
| Underdog | 23–26 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 25–28 | 26–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–8 CLE in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Oct 24CLE 131 @ BKN 124Picked CLE 84%Hit
- Mar 11BKN 104 @ CLE 109Picked CLE 86%Hit
- Feb 20CLE 110 @ BKN 97Picked CLE 84%Hit
- Dec 16CLE 130 @ BKN 101Picked CLE 80%Hit
- Nov 9BKN 100 @ CLE 105Picked CLE 85%Hit
- Mar 10BKN 120 @ CLE 101Picked CLE 75%Miss
- Feb 8CLE 118 @ BKN 95Picked CLE 63%Hit
- Jan 11BKN 102 @ CLE 111Picked CLE 66%Hit