Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Jarace WalkerPoints23
- Kam JonesAssists6
- Micah PotterRebounds12
Nets- Nolan TraorePoints20
- Nolan TraoreAssists8
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–110
- Q40.1Nets offensive team rebound115–110
- Q40.3Nolan Traore misses heave jump shot115–110
- Q41.6Micah Potter makes free throw 2 of 2115–110
- Q41.6Micah Potter makes free throw 1 of 2114–110
- Q41.6Terance Mann personal foul113–110
- Q41.6Micah Potter defensive rebound113–110
- Q44.1Egor Demin misses 25-foot three point jumper113–110
- Q47.3Nets Full timeout113–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:26Jarace Walker makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 103 – 99 BKN · IND 50% → 66% +17IND 50% → 66%+17 pts
- Q42:04Egor Demin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nolan Traore assists)IND 106 – 108 BKN · BKN 44% → 72% +29BKN 44% → 72%+29 pts
- Q41:51Micah Potter makes 3-foot layup (Taelon Peter assists)IND 108 – 108 BKN · IND 27% → 47% +20IND 27% → 47%+20 pts
- Q438.3Day'Ron Sharpe makes running layupIND 110 – 110 BKN · BKN 20% → 52% +32BKN 20% → 52%+32 pts
- Q416.8Kam Jones makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kobe Brown assists)IND 113 – 110 BKN · IND 49% → 98% +49IND 49% → 98%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BKN -6.5
- ML IND +185 / BKN -225
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -3
- BKN 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- BKN: Elo 60.9%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- BKN -197
- IND +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 104.5 – 111.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1346 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −119 | −51 | IND: Missing Pascal Siakam −58, T.J. McConnell −30, Andrew Nembhard −13 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +77 Elo | BKN 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 61.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BKN 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30111.1 | Points scored | 107.630th of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 114.913th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.7 | Margin | −7.326th of 30 |
| 30th of 30107.8 | Offense rating | 108.727th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 116.125th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.5 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 29th of 304–22 | Road vs home | 8–1830th of 30 |
| 5th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 24th of 301412 | Elo rating | 134628th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−119 Elo- Pascal Siakam sore left hamstring−58 Elo
- T.J. McConnell sore right hamstring−30 Elo
- Andrew Nembhard back−13 Elo
- Aaron Nesmith low back soreness−11 Elo
Nets
−51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–27 | 26–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 24–22 | 23–26 |
| Overs–unders | 22–32 | 24–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 5–3 BKN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Nov 5BKN 112 @ IND 103Picked IND 69%Miss
- Mar 22BKN 103 @ IND 108Picked IND 83%Hit
- Mar 20BKN 99 @ IND 105Picked IND 73%Hit
- Jan 6IND 113 @ BKN 99Picked IND 81%Hit
- Dec 4IND 90 @ BKN 99Picked IND 59%Miss
- Apr 3IND 111 @ BKN 115Picked IND 60%Miss
- Apr 1BKN 111 @ IND 133Picked IND 74%Hit
- Mar 16BKN 100 @ IND 121Picked IND 69%Hit