Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Anfernee SimonsPoints23
- Anfernee SimonsAssists7
- Rob DillinghamRebounds7
Nets- Nic ClaxtonPoints28
- Nolan TraoreAssists13
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–123
- Q48.2Isaac Okoro makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Anfernee Simons assists)115–123
- Q416.8Nic Claxton makes dunk (Nolan Traore assists)113–123
- Q425.0Collin Sexton makes free throw 2 of 2113–121
- Q425.0Collin Sexton makes free throw 1 of 2112–121
- Q425.0Nolan Traore personal foul111–121
- Q425.0Collin Sexton offensive rebound111–121
- Q425.5Matas Buzelis misses driving layup111–121
- Q432.5Noah Clowney makes free throw 2 of 2111–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:35Ziaire Williams makes 3-foot two point shotCHI 99 – 101 BKN · BKN 47% → 57% +10BKN 47% → 57%+10 pts
- Q47:03Ziaire Williams makes driving layup (Nic Claxton assists)CHI 99 – 103 BKN · BKN 58% → 68% +10BKN 58% → 68%+10 pts
- Q46:25Matas Buzelis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)CHI 102 – 104 BKN · CHI 26% → 42% +15CHI 26% → 42%+15 pts
- Q46:11Danny Wolf makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotCHI 102 – 106 BKN · BKN 59% → 69% +11BKN 59% → 69%+11 pts
- Q45:19Terance Mann makes 24-foot running jump shot (Danny Wolf assists)CHI 102 – 109 BKN · BKN 71% → 85% +14BKN 71% → 85%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -3.5
- ML CHI -155 / BKN +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -1
- CHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- CHI: Elo 53.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHI -140
- BKN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 111.0 – 107.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1336 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −69 | −64 | CHI: Missing Tre Jones −21 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +25 Elo | CHI 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 50.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 107.330th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 114.913th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.5 | Margin | −7.626th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 108.728th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 116.425th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.0 | Pace | 98.127th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–17 | Road vs home | 7–1830th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 24th of 301414 | Elo rating | 133628th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−69 Elo- Tre Jones left hamstring strain−21 Elo
Nets
−64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–29 | 25–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–17 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 22–26 |
| Overs–unders | 25–28 | 23–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–6 BKN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Jan 18BKN 102 @ CHI 124Picked CHI 69%Hit
- Jan 16CHI 109 @ BKN 112Picked BKN 51%Hit
- Dec 3BKN 113 @ CHI 103Picked CHI 73%Miss
- Mar 13BKN 110 @ CHI 116Picked CHI 52%Hit
- Dec 2BKN 102 @ CHI 128Picked CHI 70%Hit
- Nov 1CHI 112 @ BKN 120Picked BKN 53%Hit
- Mar 29CHI 108 @ BKN 125Picked CHI 55%Miss
- Nov 26CHI 109 @ BKN 118Picked BKN 60%Hit