Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Egor DeminPoints26
- Nolan TraoreAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds6
Magic- Desmond BanePoints23
- Jalen SuggsAssists11
- Jalen SuggsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–118
- Q41.3shot clock turnover98–118
- Q426.2Nolan Traore makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ben Saraf assists)98–118
- Q429.6Drake Powell offensive rebound95–118
- Q434.2Goga Bitadze blocks Drake Powell 's 25-foot three point jumper95–118
- Q447.0Jett Howard makes 6-foot two point shot95–118
- Q41:02Danny Wolf makes running dunk95–116
- Q41:04Danny Wolf defensive rebound93–116
- Q41:08Jase Richardson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot93–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:08Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)BKN 0 – 3 ORL · ORL 76% → 81% +5ORL 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q19:40Wendell Carter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)BKN 2 – 8 ORL · ORL 81% → 85% +4ORL 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q15:24Egor Demin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nolan Traore assists)BKN 13 – 15 ORL · BKN 17% → 22% +5BKN 17% → 22%+5 pts
- Q13:40Anthony Black makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jase Richardson assists)BKN 15 – 22 ORL · ORL 81% → 86% +4ORL 81% → 86%+4 pts
- Q13:17Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ben Saraf assists)BKN 18 – 22 ORL · BKN 14% → 19% +4BKN 14% → 19%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -9.5
- ML BKN +310 / ORL -395
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -6
- ORL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- ORL: Elo 72.2%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- ORL -327
- BKN +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 102.5 – 112.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1329 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −28 | −7 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | ORL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +166 Elo | ORL 72.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 75.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 75.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.1 | Points scored | 115.020th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 115.916th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.8 | Margin | −0.919th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 112.221st of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 113.116th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.0 | Pace | 101.815th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 24th of 307–18 | Road vs home | 14–810th of 30 |
| 9th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15117th of 30 |
| 29th of 301329 | Elo rating | 145021st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–25 | 19–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 13–21 |
| Underdog | 22–25 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders | 21–28 | 24–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 2–8 ORL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 10.
- Jan 7ORL 104 @ BKN 103Picked ORL 53%Hit
- Nov 14BKN 98 @ ORL 105Picked ORL 86%Hit
- Dec 29BKN 101 @ ORL 102Picked ORL 74%Hit
- Dec 1ORL 100 @ BKN 92Picked ORL 70%Hit
- Nov 29ORL 123 @ BKN 100Picked ORL 71%Hit
- Oct 25BKN 101 @ ORL 116Picked ORL 82%Hit
- Mar 13BKN 106 @ ORL 114Picked ORL 66%Hit
- Feb 27BKN 81 @ ORL 108Picked ORL 70%Hit