Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Will RileyPoints27
- Bub CarringtonAssists4
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds9
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points23
- Danny WolfAssists6
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–127
- Q48.0Will Riley makes dunk (Anthony Gill assists)113–127
- Q424.7Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Egor Demin assists)111–127
- Q444.9Nic Claxton defensive rebound111–124
- Q447.9Egor Demin blocks Sharife Cooper 's 6-foot fade away jump shot111–124
- Q41:03Noah Clowney makes free throw 2 of 2111–124
- Q41:03Nets offensive team rebound111–123
- Q41:03Noah Clowney misses free throw 1 of 2111–123
- Q41:03Wizards Full timeout111–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:25Will Riley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Justin Champagnie assists)WSH 5 – 3 BKN · WSH 27% → 32% +5WSH 27% → 32%+5 pts
- Q110:11Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nolan Traore assists)WSH 5 – 6 BKN · BKN 68% → 73% +5BKN 68% → 73%+5 pts
- Q19:39Michael Porter Jr. makes 18-foot fade away jump shotWSH 5 – 8 BKN · BKN 73% → 77% +3BKN 73% → 77%+3 pts
- Q19:14Noah Clowney makes 26-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)WSH 5 – 11 BKN · BKN 76% → 81% +5BKN 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q13:20Ben Saraf makes 26-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)WSH 17 – 30 BKN · BKN 86% → 90% +3BKN 86% → 90%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nets 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- BKN -8.5
- ML WSH +240 / BKN -298
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -1.5
- BKN 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −27.3 pts
- BKN: Elo 44.5%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- BKN -255
- WSH +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 104.0 – 112.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1342 | 1321 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | −34 | WSH: Missing Tre Johnson −4, Alex Sarr −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +39 Elo | WSH 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BKN 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 106.930th of 30 |
| 29th of 30122.6 | Points allowed | 115.013th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.2 | Margin | −8.027th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 108.329th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.5 | Defense rating | 116.526th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.0 | Pace | 98.128th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–19 | Road vs home | 6–1830th of 30 |
| 7th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 15069th of 30 |
| 28th of 301342 | Elo rating | 132130th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+20 Elo- Tre Johnson left ankle sprain−4 Elo
- Alex Sarr right ankle soreness−3 Elo
Nets
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–28 | 24–26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 21–26 | 22–26 |
| Overs–unders | 26–24 | 22–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–5 BKN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.
- Jan 2BKN 99 @ WSH 119Picked WSH 57%Hit
- Nov 16BKN 129 @ WSH 106Picked WSH 55%Miss
- Mar 29BKN 115 @ WSH 112Picked WSH 54%Miss
- Feb 24BKN 99 @ WSH 107Picked BKN 56%Miss
- Feb 5WSH 119 @ BKN 102Picked BKN 66%Miss
- Mar 27BKN 122 @ WSH 119Picked WSH 53%Miss
- Dec 29BKN 104 @ WSH 110Picked BKN 59%Miss
- Dec 8WSH 97 @ BKN 124Picked BKN 74%Hit