Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints28
- Nikola JokicAssists17
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Bulls- Matas BuzelisPoints21
- Anfernee SimonsAssists6
- Matas BuzelisRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–120
- Q415.9shot clock turnover136–120
- Q439.0Rob Dillingham bad pass
turnover (Bruce Brown steals)136–120
- Q453.4Julian Strawther lost ball turnover (Leonard Miller steals)136–120
- Q453.4Julian Strawther vs. Leonard Miller (Lachlan Olbrich gains possession)136–120
- Q41:13Rob Dillingham makes driving layup136–120
- Q41:22Zeke Nnaji enters the game for Cameron Johnson136–118
- Q41:22Jalen Pickett enters the game for Nikola Jokic136–118
- Q41:22DaRon Holmes II enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.136–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:24Patrick Williams makes 25-foot running jump shot (Collin Sexton assists)DEN 95 – 95 CHI · CHI 26% → 36% +10CHI 26% → 36%+10 pts
- Q31:12Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three pointerDEN 95 – 98 CHI · CHI 37% → 48% +12CHI 37% → 48%+12 pts
- Q350.2Guerschon Yabusele makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)DEN 97 – 101 CHI · CHI 41% → 53% +12CHI 41% → 53%+12 pts
- Q319.5Guerschon Yabusele makes 22-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)DEN 97 – 104 CHI · CHI 53% → 65% +12CHI 53% → 65%+12 pts
- Q410:53Bruce Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 102 – 104 CHI · DEN 41% → 54% +13DEN 41% → 54%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -9.5
- ML DEN -345 / CHI +275
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -10.5
- DEN 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.3 pts
- DEN: Elo 84.7%, market 74.4%
- Fair odds
- DEN -291
- CHI +291 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 122.5 – 113.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1599 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +78 | −75 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Missing Tre Jones −23 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +297 Elo | DEN 84.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 78.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 79.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 74.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30120.1 | Points scored | 117.011th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 120.226th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.9 | Margin | −3.223rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 112.618th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 116.125th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.2 | Pace | 104.02nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3019–9 | Road vs home | 15–1115th of 30 |
| 29th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 149222nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301599 | Elo rating | 141824th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−75 Elo- Tre Jones strained left hamstring−23 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–22 | 24–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–15 | 6–17 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 32–20 | 24–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 2–3 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.