Cleveland Cavaliers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints32
- Donovan MitchellAssists10
- Jarrett AllenRebounds13
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints22
- Nikola JokicAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–117
- Q40.1Nuggets offensive team rebound119–117
- Q40.4Nikola Jokic misses 22-foot turnaround jump shot119–117
- Q40.9Nuggets Full timeout119–117
- Q40.9Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2119–117
- Q40.9Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2118–117
- Q40.9Jamal Murray personal foul117–117
- Q46.2Jarrett Allen defensive rebound117–117
- Q49.2Tim Hardaway Jr. misses 27-foot three point jumper117–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:14Jarrett Allen makes 2-foot layup (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 112 – 113 DEN · CLE 23% → 39% +17CLE 23% → 39%+17 pts
- Q41:40Jarrett Allen makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 114 – 115 DEN · CLE 19% → 38% +19CLE 19% → 38%+19 pts
- Q41:27Nikola Jokic makes 5-foot two point shotCLE 114 – 117 DEN · DEN 63% → 82% +20DEN 63% → 82%+20 pts
- Q432.1James Harden makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 117 – 117 DEN · CLE 7% → 49% +43CLE 7% → 49%+43 pts
- Q40.9Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2CLE 118 – 117 DEN · CLE 50% → >99% +50CLE 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -2.5
- ML CLE +114 / DEN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4
- DEN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 65.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -123
- CLE +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 120.0 – 122.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1618 | 1602 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | +75 | CLE: Usual rotation · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +109 Elo | DEN 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 57.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.7 | Points scored | 120.41st of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 116.319th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.7 | Margin | +4.18th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 119.91st of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 115.824th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.9 | Pace | 99.326th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 9th of 3015–10 | Road vs home | 14–1014th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 148229th of 30 |
| 4th of 301618 | Elo rating | 16026th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–32 | 31–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–27 | 18–15 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 25–28 | 33–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–1 DEN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.