Cleveland Cavaliers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints35
- James HardenAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds10
Kings- Nique CliffordPoints30
- Russell WestbrookAssists9
- Dylan CardwellRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–126
- Q42.2Jarrett Allen defensive rebound132–126
- Q44.8Nique Clifford misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot132–126
- Q410.9James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2132–126
- Q410.9James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2131–126
- Q410.9Nique Clifford personal take foul130–126
- Q412.3James Harden defensive rebound130–126
- Q416.6DeMar DeRozan misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot130–126
- Q421.9James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2130–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:26Nique Clifford makes 24-foot three point jumper (Daeqwon Plowden assists)CLE 114 – 119 SAC · SAC 52% → 72% +19SAC 52% → 72%+19 pts
- Q43:10James Harden makes 26-foot three pointer (Keon Ellis assists)CLE 119 – 121 SAC · CLE 22% → 44% +21CLE 22% → 44%+21 pts
- Q42:39James Harden makes 27-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 122 – 121 SAC · CLE 41% → 67% +26CLE 41% → 67%+26 pts
- Q42:12Donovan Mitchell makes 5-foot driving floating jump shotCLE 124 – 123 SAC · CLE 48% → 67% +19CLE 48% → 67%+19 pts
- Q442.5DeMar DeRozan makes 24-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)CLE 126 – 126 SAC · SAC 8% → 45% +37SAC 8% → 45%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -12.5
- ML CLE -625 / SAC +455
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -10.5
- CLE 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 84.6%, market 82.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -478
- SAC +478 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 121.0 – 108.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1616 | 1380 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −7 | −63 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Missing Domantas Sabonis −49 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +296 Elo | CLE 84.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 83.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 83.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 82.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.4 | Points scored | 110.529th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 120.426th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.7 | Margin | −9.929th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 108.429th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 118.228th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.9 | Pace | 101.218th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 9th of 3014–10 | Road vs home | 9–1828th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15271st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301616 | Elo rating | 138026th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−63 Elo- Domantas Sabonis lower back soreness−49 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–31 | 20–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–26 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 18–29 |
| Overs–unders | 24–28 | 26–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–3 SAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.