Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyshawn GeorgePoints17
- Sharife CooperAssists5
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds8
Cavaliers- Sam MerrillPoints32
- James HardenAssists11
- Jarrett AllenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–138
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–138
- Q423.3Tristan Enaruna defensive rebound113–138
- Q423.3Sharife Cooper misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot113–138
- Q434.5Tristan Enaruna makes 1-foot hook shot (Craig Porter Jr. assists)113–138
- Q449.6Keshon Gilbert makes tip shot113–136
- Q449.6Keshon Gilbert offensive rebound111–136
- Q452.1Sharife Cooper misses 23-foot three point jumper111–136
- Q41:13Tyrese Proctor traveling turnover111–136
- Q41:31Kadary Richmond makes two point shot111–136
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:37Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)WSH 2 – 7 CLE · CLE 90% → 93% +2CLE 90% → 93%+2 pts
- Q25:35Sharife Cooper makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamir Watkins assists)WSH 47 – 54 CLE · WSH 5% → 8% +3WSH 5% → 8%+3 pts
- Q24:35Jaden Hardy makes 23-foot three pointerWSH 50 – 58 CLE · WSH 5% → 7% +2WSH 5% → 7%+2 pts
- Q39:25Bilal Coulibaly makes 12-foot driving floating jump shotWSH 73 – 78 CLE · WSH 9% → 12% +3WSH 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q36:43Jamir Watkins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kyshawn George assists)WSH 78 – 87 CLE · WSH 4% → 7% +3WSH 4% → 7%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -17.5
- ML WSH +750 / CLE -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -12.5
- CLE 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 88.4%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -785
- WSH +785 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 110.5 – 128.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1318 | 1625 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −31 | +3 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | CLE crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +352 Elo | CLE 88.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 89.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 89.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 88.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.1 | Points scored | 119.63rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30122.8 | Points allowed | 116.017th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.7 | Margin | +3.79th of 30 |
| 29th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 115.75th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.7 | Defense rating | 112.213th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.1 | Pace | 102.99th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 28th of 305–20 | Road vs home | 17–1111th of 30 |
| 8th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 30th of 301318 | Elo rating | 16253rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–30 | 22–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 16–27 |
| Underdog | 21–28 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 27–25 | 25–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–10 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 10.
- Dec 12CLE 130 @ WSH 126Picked CLE 90%Hit
- Nov 7CLE 148 @ WSH 115Picked CLE 84%Hit
- Feb 7CLE 134 @ WSH 124Picked CLE 93%Hit
- Dec 13WSH 105 @ CLE 115Picked CLE 91%Hit
- Dec 3WSH 87 @ CLE 118Picked CLE 90%Hit
- Oct 26CLE 135 @ WSH 116Picked CLE 79%Hit
- Feb 25CLE 114 @ WSH 105Picked CLE 80%Hit
- Feb 7CLE 114 @ WSH 106Picked CLE 80%Hit