Miami Heat at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints22
- Kasparas JakucionisAssists6
- Kel'el WareRebounds14
Wizards- Tristan VukcevicPoints14
- Bub CarringtonAssists5
- Alex SarrRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–101
- Q419.4Will Riley defensive rebound132–101
- Q423.0Jahmir Young misses 27-foot running jump shot132–101
- Q426.9Tristan Vukcevic bad pass
turnover (Myron Gardner steals)132–101
- Q451.1Kasparas Jakucionis makes 28-foot running jump shot (Dru Smith assists)132–101
- Q454.5Tristan Vukcevic bad pass
turnover (Dru Smith steals)129–101
- Q455.9Tristan Vukcevic defensive rebound129–101
- Q458.9Dru Smith misses 29-foot three point jumper129–101
- Q41:08Jamir Watkins makes 3-foot layup (Tristan Vukcevic assists)129–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:10Justin Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)MIA 8 – 16 WSH · WSH 26% → 32% +6WSH 26% → 32%+6 pts
- Q18:00Andrew Wiggins makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 11 – 16 WSH · MIA 68% → 74% +6MIA 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q17:06Andrew Wiggins makes 26-foot three pointerMIA 14 – 20 WSH · MIA 65% → 71% +6MIA 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q15:11Kel'el Ware makes 25-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 19 – 24 WSH · MIA 66% → 72% +6MIA 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q13:59Tristan Vukcevic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sharife Cooper assists)MIA 21 – 29 WSH · WSH 28% → 34% +6WSH 28% → 34%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -13.5
- ML MIA -625 / WSH +455
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -7.5
- MIA 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 76.5%, market 82.7%
- Fair odds
- MIA -478
- WSH +478 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 124.5 – 111.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1327 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +16 | −23 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Tre Johnson −7, Anthony Gill −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +205 Elo | MIA 76.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 79.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 79.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 82.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 112.425th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.6 | Points allowed | 122.729th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −10.330th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 108.728th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 118.629th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.9 | Pace | 103.08th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 17th of 3011–16 | Road vs home | 9–1727th of 30 |
| 5th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 15087th of 30 |
| 17th of 301488 | Elo rating | 132730th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−23 Elo- Tre Johnson left ankle sprain−7 Elo
- Anthony Gill right hand−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–23 | 22–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–12 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 17–11 | 21–27 |
| Overs–unders | 27–26 | 27–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–2 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Apr 13WSH 119 @ MIA 118Picked MIA 75%Miss
- Mar 31MIA 120 @ WSH 94Picked MIA 78%Hit
- Mar 3WSH 90 @ MIA 106Picked MIA 74%Hit
- Nov 2MIA 118 @ WSH 98Picked MIA 78%Hit
- Mar 31MIA 119 @ WSH 107Picked MIA 68%Hit
- Mar 10WSH 110 @ MIA 108Picked MIA 79%Miss
- Feb 2MIA 110 @ WSH 102Picked MIA 59%Hit
- Nov 3WSH 114 @ MIA 121Picked MIA 58%Hit