Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints20
- James HardenAssists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds13
Thunder- Isaiah JoePoints22
- Cason WallaceAssists10
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–121
- Q40.4Chet Holmgren defensive rebound113–121
- Q43.6Donovan Mitchell misses 22-foot running jump shot113–121
- Q45.4James Harden defensive rebound113–121
- Q49.4Chet Holmgren misses free throw 2 of 2113–121
- Q49.4Chet Holmgren makes free throw 1 of 2113–121
- Q49.4Keon Ellis personal foul113–120
- Q49.7Chet Holmgren defensive rebound113–120
- Q413.1Sam Merrill misses 26-foot three point jumper113–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:55Evan Mobley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)CLE 91 – 94 OKC · CLE 30% → 42% +12CLE 30% → 42%+12 pts
- Q49:12Kenrich Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)CLE 91 – 97 OKC · OKC 59% → 72% +13OKC 59% → 72%+13 pts
- Q48:04Cason Wallace makes 24-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)CLE 95 – 102 OKC · OKC 65% → 78% +13OKC 65% → 78%+13 pts
- Q47:47James Harden makes 26-foot three pointerCLE 98 – 102 OKC · CLE 21% → 34% +13CLE 21% → 34%+13 pts
- Q45:17Cason Wallace makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)CLE 101 – 109 OKC · OKC 76% → 88% +12OKC 76% → 88%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -4.5
- ML CLE -175 / OKC +145
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 57.4%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -156
- OKC +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 116.5 – 112.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1638 | 1678 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | −111 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +52 Elo | CLE 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.8 | Points scored | 119.45th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 107.61st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.5 | Margin | +11.81st of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 117.14th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 105.61st of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.6 | Pace | 100.919th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 6th of 3017–10 | Road vs home | 23–61st of 30 |
| 24th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 148527th of 30 |
| 4th of 301638 | Elo rating | 16781st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−111 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–33 | 28–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–28 | 28–28 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 27–30 | 30–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–4 OKC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.