Brooklyn Nets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points22
- Michael Porter Jr.Assists5
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds9
Thunder- Jared McCainPoints21
- Cason WallaceAssists6
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game86–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter86–105
- Q415.4Thunder defensive team rebound86–105
- Q418.1Drake Powell misses 25-foot three point jumper86–105
- Q434.1Jared McCain makes 26-foot three pointer (Nikola Topic assists)86–105
- Q448.2Jalen Wilson makes free throw 2 of 286–102
- Q448.2Jalen Wilson makes free throw 1 of 285–102
- Q448.2Buddy Boeheim shooting foul84–102
- Q450.1Jared McCain bad pass
turnover (Jalen Wilson steals)84–102
- Q41:08Brooks Barnhizer defensive rebound84–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:42Jaylin Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)BKN 14 – 13 OKC · OKC 82% → 86% +4OKC 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q12:26Ochai Agbaji makes 25-foot three pointerBKN 23 – 17 OKC · BKN 18% → 23% +5BKN 18% → 23%+5 pts
- Q11:06Kenrich Williams makes two point shot (Jaylin Williams assists)BKN 23 – 19 OKC · OKC 76% → 80% +4OKC 76% → 80%+4 pts
- Q29:34Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)BKN 24 – 26 OKC · OKC 83% → 87% +4OKC 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q31:05Jared McCain makes 27-foot three pointer (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)BKN 65 – 76 OKC · OKC 92% → 96% +3OKC 92% → 96%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -16.5
- ML BKN +750 / OKC -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -11.5
- OKC 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- OKC: Elo 86.6%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- OKC -785
- BKN +785 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 99.5 – 116.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1333 | 1675 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −20 | −113 | BKN: Missing Nic Claxton −8 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +324 Elo | OKC 86.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 87.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 87.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 88.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.2 | Points scored | 119.75th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 108.01st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.6 | Margin | +11.71st of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.3 | Offense rating | 117.34th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 105.91st of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.4 | Pace | 100.919th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 24th of 307–20 | Road vs home | 22–61st of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148926th of 30 |
| 30th of 301333 | Elo rating | 16751st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−20 Elo- Nic Claxton right ankle sprain−8 Elo
Thunder
−113 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–28 | 27–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 27–28 |
| Underdog | 23–27 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 25–29 | 30–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–3 OKC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.