Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Ousmane DiengPoints19
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists7
- Bobby PortisRebounds12
Thunder- Isaiah JoePoints17
- Chet HolmgrenAssists4
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–93
- Q42.0shot clock turnover110–93
- Q416.4Andre Jackson Jr. offensive rebound110–93
- Q420.7Gary Trent Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper110–93
- Q441.2Jared McCain makes free throw 2 of 2110–93
- Q441.2Jared McCain makes free throw 1 of 2110–92
- Q441.2Andre Jackson Jr. shooting foul110–91
- Q445.8Jared McCain defensive rebound110–91
- Q447.4Gary Trent Jr. misses driving floating jump shot110–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:32Pete Nance makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)MIL 74 – 64 OKC · MIL 50% → 60% +10MIL 50% → 60%+10 pts
- Q33:43Jared McCain makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)MIL 79 – 70 OKC · OKC 29% → 39% +10OKC 29% → 39%+10 pts
- Q33:17Ousmane Dieng makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)MIL 82 – 70 OKC · MIL 62% → 72% +10MIL 62% → 72%+10 pts
- Q32:31Jared McCain makes 27-foot running jump shot (Jaylin Williams assists)MIL 82 – 73 OKC · OKC 27% → 37% +10OKC 27% → 37%+10 pts
- Q32:02Bobby Portis makes 22-foot three point jumperMIL 85 – 73 OKC · MIL 64% → 74% +10MIL 64% → 74%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -13.5
- ML MIL +455 / OKC -625
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -8.5
- OKC 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 79.8%, market 82.7%
- Fair odds
- OKC -478
- MIL +478 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 100.5 – 114.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1703 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | OKC and MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −95 | −129 | MIL: Missing Myles Turner −21 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +239 Elo | OKC 79.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 82.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 81.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 82.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 120.22nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 108.01st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.8 | Margin | +12.21st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 117.63rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 105.71st of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.5 | Pace | 101.118th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 21st of 3010–18 | Road vs home | 22–51st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 148925th of 30 |
| 20th of 301455 | Elo rating | 17031st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−95 Elo- Myles Turner sore right calf−21 Elo
Thunder
−129 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–29 | 27–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 27–27 |
| Underdog | 16–15 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 21–31 | 30–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–4 OKC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.