Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Kevin Porter Jr.Points28
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists7
- AJ GreenRebounds6
Magic- Anthony BlackPoints26
- Jalen SuggsAssists10
- Paolo BancheroRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–118
- Q48.8Pete Nance makes 25-foot three point jumper (Thanasis Antetokounmpo assists)99–118
- Q410.3Thanasis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound96–118
- Q414.6Ousmane Dieng misses 22-foot three point jumper96–118
- Q422.6Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound96–118
- Q425.6Jett Howard misses 26-foot running jump shot96–118
- Q431.3Jonathan Isaac defensive rebound96–118
- Q434.8Cam Thomas misses driving floating jump shot96–118
- Q448.7Noah Penda makes 26-foot three pointer (Jonathan Isaac assists)96–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q223.1Franz Wagner makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)MIL 52 – 51 ORL · ORL 59% → 67% +8ORL 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q310:45Paolo Banchero makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)MIL 56 – 56 ORL · ORL 61% → 69% +8ORL 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q39:53Myles Turner makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)MIL 59 – 58 ORL · MIL 26% → 34% +8MIL 26% → 34%+8 pts
- Q35:14AJ Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Myles Turner assists)MIL 67 – 68 ORL · MIL 22% → 30% +8MIL 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q34:57Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three point jumper (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)MIL 67 – 71 ORL · ORL 70% → 78% +8ORL 70% → 78%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -9.5
- ML MIL +310 / ORL -395
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -5.5
- ORL 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- ORL: Elo 70.7%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- ORL -327
- MIL +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 105.5 – 115.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −62 | +30 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +153 Elo | ORL 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 74.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 74.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 115.118th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 115.515th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−3.7 | Margin | −0.418th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 112.221st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 112.615th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.5 | Pace | 102.012th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–17 | Road vs home | 16–86th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301447 | Elo rating | 146119th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–28 | 20–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 14–22 |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders | 20–30 | 26–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–3 ORL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Mar 8ORL 111 @ MIL 109Picked MIL 71%Miss
- Jan 15ORL 93 @ MIL 122Picked MIL 69%Hit
- Jan 10MIL 109 @ ORL 106Picked MIL 67%Hit
- Dec 10ORL 109 @ MIL 114Picked MIL 75%Hit
- Apr 14MIL 88 @ ORL 113Picked ORL 66%Hit
- Apr 10ORL 99 @ MIL 117Picked ORL 61%Miss
- Dec 21ORL 114 @ MIL 118Picked MIL 75%Hit
- Nov 11MIL 97 @ ORL 112Picked ORL 53%Hit