Utah Jazz at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints27
- Isaiah CollierAssists10
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds14
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints23
- Paolo BancheroAssists8
- Moritz WagnerRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–120
- Q41.1Paolo Banchero defensive rebound117–120
- Q41.1Isaiah Collier misses 27-foot fade away jump shot117–120
- Q48.7Jalen Suggs makes free throw 2 of 2117–120
- Q48.7Jalen Suggs makes free throw 1 of 2117–119
- Q48.7Kyle Filipowski personal foul117–118
- Q415.2Isaiah Collier bad pass
turnover (Jalen Suggs steals)117–118
- Q417.8Jazz offensive team rebound117–118
- Q417.8Wendell Carter Jr. blocks Brice Sensabaugh 's 8-foot pullup jump shot117–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:33Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three pointer (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 107 – 103 ORL · UTAH 48% → 64% +17UTAH 48% → 64%+17 pts
- Q42:05Jalen Suggs makes 24-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)UTAH 115 – 115 ORL · ORL 26% → 54% +28ORL 26% → 54%+28 pts
- Q41:06John Konchar makes 3-foot running dunk (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 117 – 115 ORL · UTAH 47% → 73% +26UTAH 47% → 73%+26 pts
- Q428.3Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2UTAH 117 – 117 ORL · ORL 32% → 52% +20ORL 32% → 52%+20 pts
- Q428.3Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2UTAH 117 – 118 ORL · ORL 52% → 72% +20ORL 52% → 72%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -7.5
- ML UTAH +225 / ORL -278
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -4.5
- ORL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- ORL: Elo 67.8%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- ORL -239
- UTAH +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 113.5 – 121.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1338 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | −3 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +129 Elo | ORL 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 69.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 69.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 115.020th of 30 |
| 30th of 30126.8 | Points allowed | 115.515th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.5 | Margin | −0.517th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 112.321st of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.8 | Defense rating | 112.815th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.7 | Pace | 101.816th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 25th of 306–19 | Road vs home | 15–810th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 15078th of 30 |
| 28th of 301338 | Elo rating | 145820th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–24 | 20–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 14–21 |
| Underdog | 24–22 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders | 31–21 | 25–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–3 ORL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.