Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints23
- Cason WallaceAssists6
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds10
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints22
- LeBron JamesAssists10
- Deandre AytonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–110
- Q412.1Jalen Williams defensive rebound119–110
- Q417.3Marcus Smart misses 26-foot three point jumper119–110
- Q420.9Jalen Williams makes free throw 2 of 2119–110
- Q420.9Jalen Williams makes free throw 1 of 2118–110
- Q420.9Luke Kennard personal take foul117–110
- Q426.7Thunder defensive team rebound117–110
- Q428.3Austin Reaves misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot117–110
- Q435.9Lakers Full timeout117–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34.0Alex Caruso makes 25-foot three pointerOKC 93 – 91 LAL · OKC 55% → 67% +12OKC 55% → 67%+12 pts
- Q411:49Marcus Smart makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)OKC 93 – 94 LAL · LAL 33% → 45% +12LAL 33% → 45%+12 pts
- Q49:52Alex Caruso makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)OKC 98 – 94 LAL · OKC 63% → 75% +12OKC 63% → 75%+12 pts
- Q49:34Marcus Smart makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 98 – 97 LAL · LAL 25% → 37% +12LAL 25% → 37%+12 pts
- Q45:01Jalen Williams makes 2-foot layup (Cason Wallace assists)OKC 102 – 99 LAL · OKC 62% → 74% +11OKC 62% → 74%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -7.5
- ML OKC -238 / LAL +195
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -2.5
- OKC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- OKC: Elo 60.2%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- OKC -208
- LAL +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 115.0 – 107.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1681 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −89 | −47 | OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +72 Elo | OKC 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 63.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30119.9 | Points scored | 116.113th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 115.817th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.0 | Margin | +0.316th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 115.76th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.5 | Defense rating | 115.422nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.321st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 1st of 3018–7 | Road vs home | 14–811th of 30 |
| 27th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 149023rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301681 | Elo rating | 153114th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−89 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–28 | 29–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–27 | 21–10 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders | 28–25 | 28–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 4–4 LAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Nov 12LAL 92 @ OKC 121Picked OKC 73%Hit
- Apr 8LAL 120 @ OKC 136Picked OKC 77%Hit
- Apr 6LAL 126 @ OKC 99Picked OKC 76%Miss
- Nov 29OKC 101 @ LAL 93Picked OKC 57%Hit
- Mar 4OKC 104 @ LAL 116Picked LAL 58%Hit
- Jan 15OKC 105 @ LAL 112Picked OKC 63%Miss
- Dec 23LAL 129 @ OKC 120Picked OKC 66%Miss
- Nov 30LAL 110 @ OKC 133Picked OKC 71%Hit