Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Moses MoodyPoints25
- Pat SpencerAssists7
- Gui SantosRebounds8
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints20
- LeBron JamesAssists10
- Jarred VanderbiltRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–105
- Q40.8De'Anthony Melton makes 27-foot three pointer (Brandin Podziemski assists)99–105
- Q46.6shot clock turnover96–105
- Q430.7Brandin Podziemski makes running dunk96–105
- Q432.9Austin Reaves lost ball turnover (Brandin Podziemski steals)94–105
- Q452.0Lakers defensive team rebound94–105
- Q452.0Marcus Smart blocks Gui Santos 's 3-foot driving layup94–105
- Q458.3Gui Santos offensive rebound94–105
- Q41:00Moses Moody misses running pullup jump shot94–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:20Brandin Podziemski makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)GS 76 – 81 LAL · GS 17% → 27% +10GS 17% → 27%+10 pts
- Q48:17Draymond Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)GS 83 – 86 LAL · GS 21% → 34% +12GS 21% → 34%+12 pts
- Q47:27Gui Santos makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 86 – 87 LAL · GS 28% → 43% +15GS 28% → 43%+15 pts
- Q46:02Gary Payton II makes two point shot (Gui Santos assists)GS 88 – 89 LAL · GS 32% → 43% +11GS 32% → 43%+11 pts
- Q45:47Luke Kennard makes 23-foot three pointer (Austin Reaves assists)GS 88 – 92 LAL · LAL 57% → 74% +16LAL 57% → 74%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -1.5
- ML GS +110 / LAL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -0.5
- LAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- LAL: Elo 52.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -119
- GS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 109.5 – 111.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −70 | −62 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Missing Deandre Ayton −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +18 Elo | LAL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 53.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 116.413th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 116.218th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 115.95th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 115.723rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.8 | Pace | 100.321st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 16th of 3011–15 | Road vs home | 13–811th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 148923rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301550 | Elo rating | 152414th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−62 Elo- Deandre Ayton right knee soreness−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–27 | 28–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–20 | 20–10 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders | 30–22 | 28–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 5–4 LAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Oct 21GS 119 @ LAL 109Picked GS 58%Hit
- Apr 3GS 123 @ LAL 116Picked LAL 50%Miss
- Feb 6GS 112 @ LAL 120Picked LAL 62%Hit
- Jan 25LAL 118 @ GS 108Picked LAL 51%Hit
- Dec 25LAL 115 @ GS 113Picked GS 61%Miss
- Apr 9GS 134 @ LAL 120Picked GS 52%Hit
- Mar 16GS 128 @ LAL 121Picked LAL 61%Miss
- Feb 22LAL 110 @ GS 128Picked GS 58%Hit