Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Cam ThomasPoints34
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists11
- Jericho SimsRebounds11
Magic- Desmond BanePoints31
- Jalen SuggsAssists10
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–108
- Q46.7Desmond Bane lost ball turnover (Myles Turner steals)116–108
- Q49.1Desmond Bane offensive rebound116–108
- Q415.4Jalen Suggs misses 31-foot three point jumper116–108
- Q420.6Magic Full timeout116–108
- Q421.1Cam Thomas makes 28-foot three point jumper116–108
- Q441.0Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound113–108
- Q443.5Wendell Carter Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper113–108
- Q455.3Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)113–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:19Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Franz Wagner assists)MIL 102 – 99 ORL · ORL 25% → 42% +17ORL 25% → 42%+17 pts
- Q43:02Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)MIL 104 – 104 ORL · ORL 34% → 58% +24ORL 34% → 58%+24 pts
- Q42:44Cam Thomas makes driving layupMIL 106 – 104 ORL · MIL 42% → 59% +17MIL 42% → 59%+17 pts
- Q41:44Kyle Kuzma makes running layup (Cam Thomas assists)MIL 108 – 106 ORL · MIL 44% → 65% +21MIL 44% → 65%+21 pts
- Q455.3Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)MIL 113 – 108 ORL · MIL 74% → 96% +22MIL 74% → 96%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -11.5
- ML MIL +370 / ORL -485
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -6.5
- ORL 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- ORL: Elo 74.3%, market 79.6%
- Fair odds
- ORL -390
- MIL +390 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 104.0 – 115.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −83 | +35 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +185 Elo | ORL 74.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 77.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 77.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 79.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30111.7 | Points scored | 115.218th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 115.214th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.0 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 112.321st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 112.314th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.5 | Pace | 101.914th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–18 | Road vs home | 17–86th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301439 | Elo rating | 146920th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−83 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–29 | 21–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 15–22 |
| Underdog | 15–15 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders | 20–31 | 26–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–4 ORL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Feb 9MIL 99 @ ORL 118Picked ORL 77%Hit
- Mar 8ORL 111 @ MIL 109Picked MIL 71%Miss
- Jan 15ORL 93 @ MIL 122Picked MIL 69%Hit
- Jan 10MIL 109 @ ORL 106Picked MIL 67%Hit
- Dec 10ORL 109 @ MIL 114Picked MIL 75%Hit
- Apr 14MIL 88 @ ORL 113Picked ORL 66%Hit
- Apr 10ORL 99 @ MIL 117Picked ORL 61%Miss
- Dec 21ORL 114 @ MIL 118Picked MIL 75%Hit