Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints28
- Isaiah HartensteinAssists6
- Kenrich WilliamsRebounds6
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints23
- Jamaree BouyeaAssists6
- Khaman MaluachRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–109
- Q420.7Khaman Maluach defensive rebound136–109
- Q423.7Rasheer Fleming blocks Buddy Boeheim 's 23-foot three point pullup jump shot136–109
- Q428.0Kenrich Williams offensive rebound136–109
- Q431.5Jaylin Williams misses 26-foot three point jumper136–109
- Q451.4Amir Coffey makes 2-foot two point shot (Rasheer Fleming assists)136–109
- Q41:03Koby Brea defensive rebound136–107
- Q41:06Jared McCain misses 19-foot pullup jump shot136–107
- Q41:21Thunder defensive team rebound136–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:45Royce O'Neale makes 28-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)OKC 0 – 3 PHX · PHX 30% → 35% +6PHX 30% → 35%+6 pts
- Q111:26Luguentz Dort makes 26-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 3 – 3 PHX · OKC 65% → 70% +6OKC 65% → 70%+6 pts
- Q110:02Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three pointerOKC 8 – 7 PHX · OKC 66% → 72% +6OKC 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q19:21Royce O'Neale makes 28-foot three pointer (Dillon Brooks assists)OKC 10 – 10 PHX · PHX 25% → 30% +5PHX 25% → 30%+5 pts
- Q13:56Kenrich Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)OKC 26 – 20 PHX · OKC 75% → 80% +5OKC 75% → 80%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -7.5
- ML OKC -278 / PHX +225
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -2.5
- OKC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- OKC: Elo 59.8%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- OKC -239
- PHX +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 109.5 – 102.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 211.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1688 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −81 | −29 | OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +69 Elo | OKC 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 66.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.9 | Points scored | 113.724th of 30 |
| 1st of 30108.0 | Points allowed | 111.45th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.9 | Margin | +2.311th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 113.313th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.6 | Defense rating | 111.08th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.123rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 1st of 3019–7 | Road vs home | 18–96th of 30 |
| 25th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 30 |
| 1st of 301688 | Elo rating | 155911th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–28 | 35–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–27 | 18–9 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders | 29–25 | 23–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 8–1 PHX in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Jan 4OKC 105 @ PHX 108Picked OKC 77%Miss
- Dec 10PHX 89 @ OKC 138Picked OKC 88%Hit
- Nov 28PHX 119 @ OKC 123Picked OKC 86%Hit
- Apr 9OKC 125 @ PHX 112Picked OKC 70%Hit
- Feb 5PHX 109 @ OKC 140Picked OKC 85%Hit
- Nov 15PHX 83 @ OKC 99Picked OKC 73%Hit
- Mar 29PHX 103 @ OKC 128Picked PHX 54%Miss
- Mar 3OKC 118 @ PHX 110Picked OKC 64%Hit