Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Naji MarshallPoints31
- Max ChristieAssists3
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds8
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints23
- Collin GillespieAssists8
- Oso IghodaroRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–120
- Q46.0Mark Williams defensive rebound111–120
- Q47.6P.J. Washington misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot111–120
- Q415.4(00:15.4) [Mavericks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)111–120
- Q415.4shot clock turnover111–120
- Q415.4Dillon Brooks offensive rebound111–120
- Q417.3Jordan Goodwin misses 12-foot two point shot111–120
- Q419.8AJ Johnson enters the game for Khris Middleton111–120
- Q419.8Tyus Jones enters the game for Cooper Flagg111–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:32Devin Booker makes 26-foot three pointer (Royce O'Neale assists)DAL 1 – 9 PHX · PHX 81% → 85% +4PHX 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q13:49Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)DAL 13 – 23 PHX · PHX 84% → 88% +4PHX 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q45:55Naji Marshall makes 24-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)DAL 101 – 110 PHX · DAL 2% → 6% +4DAL 2% → 6%+4 pts
- Q45:13P.J. Washington makes 25-foot three point jumper (Marvin Bagley III assists)DAL 104 – 112 PHX · DAL 3% → 7% +4DAL 3% → 7%+4 pts
- Q42:09Naji Marshall makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotDAL 109 – 115 PHX · DAL 2% → 5% +4DAL 2% → 5%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -8.5
- ML DAL +270 / PHX -340
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -6.5
- PHX 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- PHX: Elo 74.2%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- PHX -286
- DAL +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 110.5 – 119.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −3 | +28 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +183 Elo | PHX 74.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 73.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 73.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.2 | Points scored | 113.624th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.2 | Points allowed | 111.45th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.0 | Margin | +2.211th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 113.214th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 111.09th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.7 | Pace | 100.123rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 26th of 305–16 | Road vs home | 17–98th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15069th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301438 | Elo rating | 155511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–29 | 34–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 17–9 |
| Underdog | 18–17 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders | 23–29 | 22–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–5 PHX in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Nov 12PHX 123 @ DAL 114Picked PHX 54%Hit
- Mar 9PHX 125 @ DAL 116Picked PHX 70%Hit
- Dec 27DAL 98 @ PHX 89Picked PHX 51%Miss
- Nov 8PHX 114 @ DAL 113Picked DAL 57%Miss
- Oct 26DAL 102 @ PHX 114Picked DAL 61%Miss
- Feb 22PHX 113 @ DAL 123Picked DAL 62%Hit
- Jan 24PHX 132 @ DAL 109Picked PHX 56%Hit
- Dec 25DAL 128 @ PHX 114Picked DAL 52%Hit