Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Klay ThompsonPoints19
- Tyus JonesAssists7
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds12
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints40
- Stephon CastleAssists12
- Stephon CastleRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–138
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–138
- Q45.2shot clock turnover125–138
- Q430.0Tyus Jones makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (AJ Johnson assists)125–138
- Q441.3Kelly Olynyk bad pass
turnover (Dwight Powell steals)123–138
- Q449.6Spurs offensive team rebound123–138
- Q449.6Marvin Bagley III blocks Kelly Olynyk 's 3-foot running layup123–138
- Q454.1Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound123–138
- Q457.0AJ Johnson misses running pullup jump shot123–138
- Q41:01Dwight Powell defensive rebound123–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:04Stephon Castle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)DAL 22 – 26 SA · SA 78% → 83% +5SA 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q28:06Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three pointerDAL 51 – 49 SA · DAL 24% → 30% +6DAL 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q25:42Stephon Castle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)DAL 54 – 58 SA · SA 76% → 81% +6SA 76% → 81%+6 pts
- Q25:03Carter Bryant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)DAL 56 – 61 SA · SA 77% → 83% +6SA 77% → 83%+6 pts
- Q23:39Carter Bryant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dylan Harper assists)DAL 60 – 66 SA · SA 79% → 85% +5SA 79% → 85%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- SA -11.5
- ML DAL +350 / SA -455
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -7.5
- SA 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- SA: Elo 76.9%, market 78.7%
- Fair odds
- SA -369
- DAL +369 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 111.5 – 123.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | +38 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +209 Elo | SA 76.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 82.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 82.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 78.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30114.0 | Points scored | 117.210th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 112.26th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.8 | Margin | +4.96th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 114.99th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 110.13rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.5 | Pace | 101.716th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 25th of 305–15 | Road vs home | 18–64th of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301443 | Elo rating | 15688th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–28 | 29–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 17–17 |
| Underdog | 18–16 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 22–29 | 20–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 7–3 SA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Feb 5SA 135 @ DAL 123Picked SA 73%Hit
- Oct 22SA 125 @ DAL 92Picked DAL 61%Miss
- Mar 12DAL 116 @ SA 126Picked SA 68%Hit
- Mar 10DAL 133 @ SA 129Picked SA 69%Miss
- Nov 16SA 93 @ DAL 110Picked DAL 85%Hit
- Oct 24SA 109 @ DAL 120Picked DAL 76%Hit
- Mar 19DAL 113 @ SA 107Picked DAL 68%Hit
- Feb 14SA 93 @ DAL 116Picked DAL 77%Hit