San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints29
- De'Aaron FoxAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds11
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints32
- Ryan NembhardAssists7
- Daniel GaffordRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–123
- Q422.1shot clock turnover135–123
- Q444.7Stephon Castle defensive rebound135–123
- Q448.4Naji Marshall misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot135–123
- Q453.6Stephon Castle makes tip in dunk135–123
- Q453.6Stephon Castle offensive rebound133–123
- Q454.7Victor Wembanyama misses 23-foot running jump shot133–123
- Q458.9De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound133–123
- Q41:00Cooper Flagg misses 13-foot step back jumpshot133–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:48Harrison Barnes makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 106 – 100 DAL · SA 73% → 83% +10SA 73% → 83%+10 pts
- Q49:33Cooper Flagg makes 24-foot three pointerSA 106 – 103 DAL · DAL 17% → 27% +10DAL 17% → 27%+10 pts
- Q47:55De'Aaron Fox makes 24-foot running jump shot (Carter Bryant assists)SA 112 – 105 DAL · SA 78% → 87% +10SA 78% → 87%+10 pts
- Q44:09Naji Marshall makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotSA 120 – 119 DAL · DAL 24% → 36% +12DAL 24% → 36%+12 pts
- Q43:52Stephon Castle makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 123 – 119 DAL · SA 64% → 82% +18SA 64% → 82%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- SA -7.5
- ML SA -310 / DAL +250
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -2.5
- SA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.4 pts
- SA: Elo 59.2%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- SA -265
- DAL +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 119.0 – 111.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +24 | −10 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Missing Brandon Williams −11 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +64 Elo | SA 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 65.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 113.824th of 30 |
| 6th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 116.520th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.8 | Margin | −2.721st of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 108.926th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 111.511th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.6 | Pace | 103.45th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 8th of 3015–10 | Road vs home | 14–1520th of 30 |
| 12th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149221st of 30 |
| 9th of 301559 | Elo rating | 145221st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−10 Elo- Brandon Williams right lower leg contusion−11 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–23 | 23–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–17 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 19–32 | 21–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–7 DAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Oct 22SA 125 @ DAL 92Picked DAL 61%Miss
- Mar 12DAL 116 @ SA 126Picked SA 68%Hit
- Mar 10DAL 133 @ SA 129Picked SA 69%Miss
- Nov 16SA 93 @ DAL 110Picked DAL 85%Hit
- Oct 24SA 109 @ DAL 120Picked DAL 76%Hit
- Mar 19DAL 113 @ SA 107Picked DAL 68%Hit
- Feb 14SA 93 @ DAL 116Picked DAL 77%Hit
- Dec 23SA 119 @ DAL 144Picked DAL 69%Hit