New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints28
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds11
Bulls- Matas BuzelisPoints15
- Patrick WilliamsAssists8
- Guerschon YabuseleRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–99
- Q413.1Josh Hart defensive rebound105–99
- Q414.9Josh Giddey misses driving floating jump shot105–99
- Q421.6Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2105–99
- Q421.6Matas Buzelis enters the game for Isaac Okoro104–99
- Q421.6Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2104–99
- Q421.6Isaac Okoro personal foul103–99
- Q422.5Tre Jones makes two point shot (Josh Giddey assists)103–99
- Q426.4Landry Shamet enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns103–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:23Karl-Anthony Towns makes 27-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)NY 94 – 87 CHI · NY 80% → 90% +10NY 80% → 90%+10 pts
- Q45:56Collin Sexton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Patrick Williams assists)NY 94 – 90 CHI · CHI 10% → 20% +10CHI 10% → 20%+10 pts
- Q43:42Matas Buzelis makes 27-foot running jump shot (Josh Giddey assists)NY 94 – 95 CHI · CHI 28% → 50% +21CHI 28% → 50%+21 pts
- Q42:34Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)NY 97 – 95 CHI · NY 48% → 73% +26NY 48% → 73%+26 pts
- Q42:00Karl-Anthony Towns makes 2-foot two point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 99 – 95 CHI · NY 74% → 88% +13NY 74% → 88%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- NY -9.5
- ML NY -380 / CHI +300
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -7
- NY 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- NY: Elo 75.9%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- NY -317
- CHI +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 122.0 – 112.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1611 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CHI and NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +7 | −6 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +199 Elo | NY 75.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 74.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 74.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 116.411th of 30 |
| 7th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 120.526th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.8 | Margin | −4.124th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 111.822nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 116.226th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.7 | Pace | 104.22nd of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 13th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 15–1418th of 30 |
| 25th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 5th of 301611 | Elo rating | 139025th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–28 | 24–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 26–23 | 6–18 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 30–28 | 28–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 5–4 CHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Nov 2CHI 116 @ NY 128Picked NY 72%Hit
- Oct 31NY 125 @ CHI 135Picked NY 64%Miss
- Feb 20CHI 111 @ NY 113Picked NY 78%Hit
- Jan 4NY 126 @ CHI 139Picked NY 66%Miss
- Nov 13CHI 124 @ NY 123Picked NY 75%Miss
- Apr 14CHI 119 @ NY 120Picked NY 68%Hit
- Apr 9NY 128 @ CHI 117Picked NY 54%Hit
- Apr 5NY 100 @ CHI 108Picked CHI 50%Hit