Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Rob DillinghamPoints16
- Rob DillinghamAssists7
- Matas BuzelisRebounds8
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints26
- Derrick WhiteAssists9
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–124
- Q43.6Payton Pritchard lost ball turnover (Collin Sexton steals)105–124
- Q428.3Collin Sexton makes 15-foot driving floating jump shot (Jaden Ivey assists)105–124
- Q441.0Bulls offensive team rebound103–124
- Q441.0Jordan Walsh blocks Collin Sexton 's 10-foot driving layup103–124
- Q449.7Baylor Scheierman makes 11-foot fade away jump shot (Payton Pritchard assists)103–124
- Q41:08Lachlan Olbrich makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)103–122
- Q41:16Lachlan Olbrich defensive rebound100–122
- Q41:18Payton Pritchard misses free throw 2 of 2100–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:51Matas Buzelis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Guerschon Yabusele assists)CHI 13 – 9 BOS · CHI 19% → 23% +5CHI 19% → 23%+5 pts
- Q17:20Matas Buzelis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Patrick Williams assists)CHI 16 – 11 BOS · CHI 20% → 25% +5CHI 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q17:11Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)CHI 16 – 14 BOS · BOS 75% → 80% +5BOS 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q16:47Jaylen Brown makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCHI 16 – 17 BOS · BOS 80% → 84% +4BOS 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q13:35Patrick Williams makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)CHI 23 – 22 BOS · CHI 15% → 20% +4CHI 15% → 20%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -13.5
- ML CHI +500 / BOS -700
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -11.5
- BOS 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 86.4%, market 84.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -525
- CHI +525 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 107.0 – 120.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1404 | 1635 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −50 | +4 | CHI: Missing Josh Giddey −37, Tre Jones −21 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +321 Elo | BOS 86.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 79.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 80.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 84.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 115.118th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 108.42nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.6 | Margin | +6.73rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 117.72nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 110.97th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.1 | Pace | 97.430th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 23rd of 309–18 | Road vs home | 17–98th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 148130th of 30 |
| 25th of 301404 | Elo rating | 16352nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−50 Elo- Josh Giddey left hamstring strain−37 Elo
- Tre Jones left hamstring strain−21 Elo
Celtics
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–30 | 29–24 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 19–19 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 26–28 | 19–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–7 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Jan 24BOS 111 @ CHI 114Picked BOS 58%Miss
- Jan 5CHI 101 @ BOS 115Picked BOS 79%Hit
- Jan 29CHI 100 @ BOS 122Picked BOS 89%Hit
- Dec 21BOS 123 @ CHI 98Picked BOS 83%Hit
- Dec 19CHI 117 @ BOS 108Picked BOS 89%Miss
- Nov 29BOS 138 @ CHI 129Picked BOS 84%Hit
- Mar 23BOS 124 @ CHI 113Picked BOS 59%Hit
- Feb 22BOS 129 @ CHI 112Picked BOS 58%Hit