Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints26
- Cade CunninghamAssists13
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints27
- Guerschon YabuseleAssists8
- Guerschon YabuseleRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–110
- Q415.5Nick Richards makes two point shot126–110
- Q415.5Nick Richards offensive rebound126–108
- Q417.1Leonard Miller misses driving layup126–108
- Q429.6Paul Reed makes free throw 1 of 1126–108
- Q429.6Nick Richards shooting foul125–108
- Q429.6Paul Reed makes tip in dunk125–108
- Q429.6Paul Reed offensive rebound123–108
- Q431.6Daniss Jenkins misses two point shot123–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q126.4Jalen Smith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)DET 28 – 30 CHI · CHI 20% → 26% +5CHI 20% → 26%+5 pts
- Q211:09Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot three pointerDET 31 – 32 CHI · DET 70% → 76% +6DET 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q28:41Isaac Okoro makes 25-foot three point jumper (Guerschon Yabusele assists)DET 33 – 35 CHI · CHI 21% → 27% +6CHI 21% → 27%+6 pts
- Q311:26Jalen Smith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)DET 55 – 53 CHI · CHI 16% → 22% +6CHI 16% → 22%+6 pts
- Q310:21Duncan Robinson makes 23-foot running jump shot (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 62 – 55 CHI · DET 82% → 87% +5DET 82% → 87%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DET -10.5
- ML DET -550 / CHI +410
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -10
- DET 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- DET: Elo 83.1%, market 81.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -432
- CHI +432 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 122.5 – 112.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1644 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +60 | −3 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +277 Elo | DET 83.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 75.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 76.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 81.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 116.511th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 120.426th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.1 | Margin | −3.924th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 112.022nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.9 | Defense rating | 116.226th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.8 | Pace | 104.12nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3019–7 | Road vs home | 15–1317th of 30 |
| 27th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301644 | Elo rating | 139425th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–24 | 24–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 20–23 | 6–18 |
| Underdog | 10–1 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 22–32 | 27–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 7–4 CHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- Jan 7CHI 93 @ DET 108Picked DET 73%Hit
- Nov 12CHI 113 @ DET 124Picked CHI 58%Miss
- Oct 22DET 111 @ CHI 115Picked DET 61%Miss
- Feb 12DET 128 @ CHI 110Picked DET 67%Hit
- Feb 11DET 132 @ CHI 92Picked DET 64%Hit
- Feb 2CHI 119 @ DET 127Picked DET 67%Hit
- Nov 18CHI 122 @ DET 112Picked DET 61%Miss
- Apr 11CHI 127 @ DET 105Picked CHI 66%Hit