Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints31
- Brandon IngramAssists6
- Scottie BarnesRebounds9
Bulls- Anfernee SimonsPoints20
- Tre JonesAssists6
- Jalen SmithRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–101
- Q418.7Josh Giddey lost ball turnover (Collin Murray-Boyles steals)110–101
- Q424.2RJ Barrett makes free throw 2 of 2110–101
- Q424.2RJ Barrett makes free throw 1 of 2109–101
- Q424.2Josh Giddey personal foul108–101
- Q426.2Brandon Ingram defensive rebound108–101
- Q429.1Collin Murray-Boyles blocks Anfernee Simons 's 24-foot three point jumper108–101
- Q435.5Matas Buzelis enters the game for Patrick Williams108–101
- Q435.5Bulls Full timeout108–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:53Guerschon Yabusele makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)TOR 93 – 88 CHI · CHI 13% → 22% +9CHI 13% → 22%+9 pts
- Q47:21Josh Giddey makes driving layupTOR 96 – 92 CHI · CHI 17% → 24% +8CHI 17% → 24%+8 pts
- Q46:42Ja'Kobe Walter makes 23-foot running jump shot (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 99 – 92 CHI · TOR 76% → 87% +11TOR 76% → 87%+11 pts
- Q42:12Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Smith assists)TOR 103 – 101 CHI · CHI 10% → 28% +19CHI 10% → 28%+19 pts
- Q41:18Collin Murray-Boyles makes layup (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 105 – 101 CHI · TOR 76% → 91% +15TOR 76% → 91%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -6.5
- ML TOR -225 / CHI +185
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -3
- TOR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 61.9%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -197
- CHI +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 120.5 – 114.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | −2 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +84 Elo | TOR 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 62.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.8 | Points scored | 116.811th of 30 |
| 7th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 120.627th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −3.824th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 112.320th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 116.426th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.3 | Pace | 104.02nd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 7th of 3016–10 | Road vs home | 15–1215th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 19th of 301474 | Elo rating | 140125th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–27 | 24–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 14–18 | 6–18 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 22–33 | 27–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–6 CHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Feb 5CHI 107 @ TOR 123Picked TOR 73%Hit
- Apr 1TOR 118 @ CHI 137Picked CHI 61%Hit
- Feb 28TOR 115 @ CHI 125Picked CHI 52%Hit
- Jan 31CHI 122 @ TOR 106Picked TOR 60%Miss
- Dec 16CHI 122 @ TOR 121Picked CHI 51%Hit
- Jan 30TOR 118 @ CHI 107Picked CHI 70%Miss
- Jan 18CHI 116 @ TOR 110Picked CHI 56%Hit
- Nov 24CHI 108 @ TOR 121Picked TOR 65%Hit