Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints27
- Craig Porter Jr.Assists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds11
Bucks- Kevin Porter Jr.Points20
- Ryan RollinsAssists9
- Jericho SimsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–118
- Q40.0(00:00) [Cavaliers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)116–118
- Q41.1Jarrett Allen offensive rebound116–118
- Q43.0Dennis Schroder misses two point shot116–118
- Q420.2Kevin Porter Jr. makes 15-foot fade away jump shot116–118
- Q435.6Bobby Portis enters the game for Kyle Kuzma116–116
- Q435.6Bucks Full timeout116–116
- Q435.6Dennis Schroder makes 8-foot two point shot116–116
- Q449.8Ryan Rollins lost ball turnover (Keon Ellis steals)114–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:43Ryan Rollins makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 106 – 106 MIL · MIL 29% → 47% +19MIL 29% → 47%+19 pts
- Q44:31Jaylon Tyson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)CLE 109 – 106 MIL · CLE 53% → 72% +19CLE 53% → 72%+19 pts
- Q42:22Ryan Rollins makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotCLE 112 – 114 MIL · MIL 48% → 66% +18MIL 48% → 66%+18 pts
- Q435.6Dennis Schroder makes 8-foot two point shotCLE 116 – 116 MIL · CLE 18% → 51% +33CLE 18% → 51%+33 pts
- Q420.2Kevin Porter Jr. makes 15-foot fade away jump shotCLE 116 – 118 MIL · MIL 49% → 89% +40MIL 49% → 89%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -3.5
- ML CLE -155 / MIL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -0.5
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -140
- MIL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 112.0 – 108.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1638 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MIL and CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −120 | −29 | CLE: Missing Evan Mobley −42 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +18 Elo | CLE 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 112.324th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 115.416th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.5 | Margin | −3.122nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 112.219th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 115.322nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.6 | Pace | 99.525th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 8th of 3017–11 | Road vs home | 13–1318th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301638 | Elo rating | 149317th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−120 Elo- Evan Mobley left calf−42 Elo
Bucks
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–34 | 26–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–29 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders | 28–31 | 23–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 8–2 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Nov 17MIL 106 @ CLE 118Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Oct 26MIL 113 @ CLE 118Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Mar 9CLE 112 @ MIL 100Picked CLE 70%Hit
- Dec 20MIL 101 @ CLE 124Picked CLE 76%Hit
- Nov 4MIL 114 @ CLE 116Picked CLE 76%Hit
- Nov 2CLE 114 @ MIL 113Picked MIL 54%Miss
- Jan 26CLE 112 @ MIL 100Picked MIL 53%Miss
- Jan 24CLE 116 @ MIL 126Picked MIL 50%Hit