Milwaukee Bucks at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Cam ThomasPoints27
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists7
- Bobby PortisRebounds11
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints32
- Jeremiah FearsAssists5
- Derik QueenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game139–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter139–118
- Q47.7shot clock turnover139–118
- Q432.6Bryce McGowens makes running dunk139–118
- Q436.0Ousmane Dieng lost ball turnover (Bryce McGowens steals)139–116
- Q456.0Jeremiah Fears makes driving layup139–116
- Q41:04Thanasis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2139–114
- Q41:04Derik Queen enters the game for Saddiq Bey138–114
- Q41:04Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Herbert Jones138–114
- Q41:04Thanasis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2138–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:30Karlo Matkovic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)MIL 91 – 87 NO · NO 34% → 43% +10NO 34% → 43%+10 pts
- Q33:49Ousmane Dieng makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pete Nance assists)MIL 94 – 89 NO · MIL 50% → 61% +11MIL 50% → 61%+11 pts
- Q33:31Saddiq Bey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)MIL 94 – 92 NO · NO 39% → 49% +11NO 39% → 49%+11 pts
- Q31:33Ryan Rollins makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIL 101 – 92 NO · MIL 67% → 77% +10MIL 67% → 77%+10 pts
- Q48:34Pete Nance makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)MIL 111 – 102 NO · MIL 73% → 84% +11MIL 73% → 84%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NO -4.5
- ML MIL +150 / NO -180
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -0.5
- NO 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.0 pts
- NO: Elo 47.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NO -161
- MIL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 110.0 – 114.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1366 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −61 | +3 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +17 Elo | MIL 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 57.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 114.620th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 120.426th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.4 | Margin | −5.825th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 111.324th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 116.927th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.3 | Pace | 102.012th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 21st of 3011–18 | Road vs home | 9–2028th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15134th of 30 |
| 16th of 301484 | Elo rating | 136626th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–29 | 29–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 17–15 | 23–25 |
| Overs–unders | 21–32 | 28–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–1 NO in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.