Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Maxime RaynaudPoints21
- Nique CliffordAssists6
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds19
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints21
- Trey Murphy IIIAssists7
- Karlo MatkovicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–120
- Q418.6Maxime Raynaud makes free throw 2 of 294–120
- Q418.6Maxime Raynaud makes free throw 1 of 293–120
- Q418.6Bryce McGowens shooting foul92–120
- Q431.6Jordan Hawkins makes 25-foot three pointer (Bryce McGowens assists)92–120
- Q438.8Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound92–117
- Q441.8Daeqwon Plowden misses 29-foot three point jumper92–117
- Q41:01Karlo Matkovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Hawkins assists)92–117
- Q41:21Maxime Raynaud makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot (Nique Clifford assists)92–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:40Russell Westbrook makes 26-foot three pointerSAC 12 – 8 NO · SAC 26% → 31% +6SAC 26% → 31%+6 pts
- Q18:18Saddiq Bey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)SAC 12 – 11 NO · NO 68% → 74% +6NO 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q13:48Bryce McGowens makes 26-foot three point jumper (Karlo Matkovic assists)SAC 20 – 18 NO · NO 65% → 71% +6NO 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q13:19Trey Murphy III makes 25-foot running jump shot (Jeremiah Fears assists)SAC 20 – 21 NO · NO 71% → 76% +6NO 71% → 76%+6 pts
- Q211:12Herbert Jones makes 27-foot three point jumper (Yves Missi assists)SAC 26 – 34 NO · NO 82% → 87% +4NO 82% → 87%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- NO -9.5
- ML SAC +310 / NO -395
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -4.5
- NO 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- NO: Elo 67.1%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- NO -327
- SAC +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 110.0 – 119.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1378 | 1364 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −54 | +23 | SAC: Missing Domantas Sabonis −46 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | SAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NO +124 Elo | NO 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 72.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30110.8 | Points scored | 114.621st of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 120.928th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.9 | Margin | −6.325th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 111.324th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.4 | Defense rating | 117.427th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.2 | Pace | 102.013th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 30th of 303–23 | Road vs home | 8–1930th of 30 |
| 1st of 301527 | Opponent Elo | 15164th of 30 |
| 26th of 301378 | Elo rating | 136427th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−54 Elo- Domantas Sabonis lower back injury−46 Elo
Pelicans
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–33 | 28–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 5–1 |
| Underdog | 19–29 | 23–25 |
| Overs–unders | 27–27 | 27–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 3–6 NO in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Feb 13SAC 133 @ NO 140Picked SAC 74%Miss
- Feb 12SAC 119 @ NO 111Picked SAC 66%Hit
- Feb 8NO 118 @ SAC 123Picked SAC 73%Hit
- Dec 12SAC 111 @ NO 109Picked SAC 68%Hit
- Apr 11NO 135 @ SAC 123Picked SAC 53%Miss
- Jan 7NO 133 @ SAC 100Picked SAC 58%Miss
- Dec 4NO 127 @ SAC 117Picked SAC 54%Miss
- Nov 22SAC 112 @ NO 117Picked NO 54%Hit