Miami Heat at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints27
- Davion MitchellAssists5
- Bam AdebayoRebounds14
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints25
- Jeremiah FearsAssists8
- Jeremiah FearsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–111
- Q44.5Bam Adebayo makes free throw 2 of 2123–111
- Q44.5Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 2122–111
- Q44.5Saddiq Bey personal foul121–111
- Q46.5Bam Adebayo defensive rebound121–111
- Q48.3Jeremiah Fears misses tip shot121–111
- Q48.3Jeremiah Fears offensive rebound121–111
- Q49.5Derik Queen misses driving layup121–111
- Q419.3Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes running dunk (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)121–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:38Saddiq Bey makes 23-foot running jump shot (Trey Murphy III assists)MIA 63 – 60 NO · NO 34% → 43% +9NO 34% → 43%+9 pts
- Q38:51Davion Mitchell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 66 – 60 NO · MIA 57% → 66% +9MIA 57% → 66%+9 pts
- Q37:55Simone Fontecchio makes 25-foot three pointer (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 69 – 63 NO · MIA 58% → 67% +9MIA 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q36:59Simone Fontecchio makes 25-foot three point jumper (Myron Gardner assists)MIA 74 – 66 NO · MIA 64% → 73% +9MIA 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q410:25Saddiq Bey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)MIA 98 – 91 NO · NO 14% → 23% +9NO 14% → 23%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NO -1.5
- ML MIA +105 / NO -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -1.5
- NO 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- NO: Elo 43.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NO -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 116.0 – 117.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1376 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | +30 | MIA: Usual rotation · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +44 Elo | MIA 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 114.721st of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 120.426th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.2 | Margin | −5.725th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 111.424th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 117.027th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.9 | Pace | 101.913th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 16th of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 9–1928th of 30 |
| 7th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15144th of 30 |
| 15th of 301488 | Elo rating | 137626th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–24 | 29–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–13 | 6–1 |
| Underdog | 17–11 | 23–25 |
| Overs–unders | 27–28 | 27–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–1 NO in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.