Utah Jazz at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points22
- Isaiah CollierAssists9
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds16
Heat- Andrew WigginsPoints26
- Bam AdebayoAssists5
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–111
- Q40.1Jazz defensive team rebound115–111
- Q41.8Davion Mitchell misses heave jump shot115–111
- Q43.0Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 2 of 2115–111
- Q43.0Kasparas Jakucionis enters the game for Dru Smith114–111
- Q43.0Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 1 of 2114–111
- Q43.0Davion Mitchell personal take foul113–111
- Q43.7Dru Smith enters the game for Kasparas Jakucionis113–111
- Q43.7Jazz Full timeout113–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:30Andrew Wiggins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)UTAH 101 – 104 MIA · MIA 56% → 74% +19MIA 56% → 74%+19 pts
- Q43:21Brice Sensabaugh makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ace Bailey assists)UTAH 106 – 108 MIA · UTAH 13% → 30% +17UTAH 13% → 30%+17 pts
- Q41:46Bam Adebayo makes two point shotUTAH 108 – 111 MIA · MIA 64% → 82% +18MIA 64% → 82%+18 pts
- Q41:23Isaiah Collier makes 12-foot fade away jump shotUTAH 110 – 111 MIA · UTAH 16% → 35% +19UTAH 16% → 35%+19 pts
- Q446.8Brice Sensabaugh makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ace Bailey assists)UTAH 113 – 111 MIA · UTAH 32% → 78% +46UTAH 32% → 78%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -5.5
- ML UTAH +205 / MIA -250
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -5
- MIA 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 69.9%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- MIA -218
- UTAH +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 114.5 – 120.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1335 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +14 | +1 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Norman Powell −23 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +146 Elo | MIA 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 66.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30126.7 | Points allowed | 117.321st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.4 | Margin | +2.410th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 112.619th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.5 | Defense rating | 110.24th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.9 | Pace | 105.91st of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 26th of 306–20 | Road vs home | 16–1012th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 15115th of 30 |
| 29th of 301335 | Elo rating | 149816th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+1 Elo- Norman Powell back injury−23 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–24 | 31–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 14–12 |
| Underdog | 25–22 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 32–21 | 27–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–3 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.