Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Norman PowellPoints26
- Davion MitchellAssists8
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Bucks- Kevin Porter Jr.Points32
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists7
- Jericho SimsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–128
- Q46.3shot clock turnover117–128
- Q430.3Norman Powell out of bounds lost ball turnover117–128
- Q434.9AJ Green makes free throw 2 of 2117–128
- Q434.9AJ Green makes free throw 1 of 2117–127
- Q434.9Bam Adebayo personal foul117–126
- Q445.7Kevin Porter Jr. defensive rebound117–126
- Q447.2Andrew Wiggins misses 23-foot three point jumper117–126
- Q456.8Jericho Sims makes alley oop dunk (AJ Green assists)117–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:50Ousmane Dieng makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jericho Sims assists)MIA 102 – 103 MIL · MIL 34% → 48% +14MIL 34% → 48%+14 pts
- Q46:34Norman Powell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)MIA 109 – 105 MIL · MIA 61% → 76% +15MIA 61% → 76%+15 pts
- Q45:06Jericho Sims makes alley oop layup (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)MIA 111 – 112 MIL · MIL 39% → 51% +13MIL 39% → 51%+13 pts
- Q43:47Kevin Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)MIA 116 – 117 MIL · MIL 31% → 53% +21MIL 31% → 53%+21 pts
- Q42:43Kevin Porter Jr. makes 2-foot two point shotMIA 116 – 120 MIL · MIL 63% → 78% +15MIL 63% → 78%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -6.5
- ML MIA -218 / MIL +180
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3
- MIA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 62.4%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- MIA -192
- MIL +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 118.0 – 111.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | −38 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +88 Elo | MIA 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 62.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.0 | Points scored | 112.027th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 115.416th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.1 | Margin | −3.423rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 112.121st of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 115.423rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.9 | Pace | 99.426th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 16th of 3014–16 | Road vs home | 12–1320th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 30 |
| 13th of 301522 | Elo rating | 147819th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–24 | 25–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–13 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 18–11 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders | 29–29 | 22–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–6 MIL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Nov 26MIL 103 @ MIA 106Picked MIA 78%Hit
- Apr 5MIL 121 @ MIA 115Picked MIA 51%Miss
- Feb 23MIA 113 @ MIL 120Picked MIL 61%Hit
- Jan 23MIA 96 @ MIL 125Picked MIL 68%Hit
- Nov 26MIL 106 @ MIA 103Picked MIA 67%Miss
- Feb 13MIA 123 @ MIL 97Picked MIL 56%Miss
- Nov 28MIL 131 @ MIA 124Picked MIL 54%Hit
- Oct 30MIA 114 @ MIL 122Picked MIL 51%Hit