Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints24
- Davion MitchellAssists7
- Kel'el WareRebounds12
Hawks- Onyeka OkongwuPoints22
- Jalen JohnsonAssists11
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–97
- Q417.4Keaton Wallace makes free throw 2 of 2128–97
- Q417.4Keaton Wallace makes free throw 1 of 2128–96
- Q417.4Myron Gardner personal foul128–95
- Q417.4Keaton Wallace defensive rebound128–95
- Q418.2Keshad Johnson misses driving layup128–95
- Q428.5Jock Landale makes free throw 2 of 2128–95
- Q428.5Hawks offensive team rebound128–94
- Q428.5Jock Landale misses free throw 1 of 2128–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:01CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMIA 44 – 42 ATL · ATL 32% → 39% +8ATL 32% → 39%+8 pts
- Q23:23CJ McCollum makes 27-foot three pointer (Jalen Johnson assists)MIA 46 – 45 ATL · ATL 34% → 42% +8ATL 34% → 42%+8 pts
- Q311:34Onyeka Okongwu makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)MIA 57 – 54 ATL · ATL 28% → 36% +8ATL 28% → 36%+8 pts
- Q311:12Andrew Wiggins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 60 – 54 ATL · MIA 64% → 72% +8MIA 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q38:00Onyeka Okongwu makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)MIA 64 – 60 ATL · ATL 25% → 33% +8ATL 25% → 33%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -3.5
- ML MIA -148 / ATL +124
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2
- MIA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 57.1%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -134
- ATL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 123.5 – 120.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +30 | −2 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +49 Elo | MIA 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 117.310th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.2 | Points allowed | 118.424th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.4 | Margin | −1.119th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 112.617th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 113.718th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.9 | Pace | 103.84th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 16th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 10–1524th of 30 |
| 8th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15086th of 30 |
| 15th of 301497 | Elo rating | 148516th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–24 | 27–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–13 | 8–17 |
| Underdog | 18–11 | 19–13 |
| Overs–unders | 28–28 | 29–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–4 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.
- Feb 3ATL 127 @ MIA 115Picked MIA 52%Miss
- Dec 26MIA 126 @ ATL 111Picked ATL 57%Miss
- Mar 27ATL 112 @ MIA 122Picked MIA 53%Hit
- Feb 26ATL 109 @ MIA 131Picked MIA 58%Hit
- Feb 24MIA 86 @ ATL 98Picked ATL 55%Hit
- Dec 28MIA 110 @ ATL 120Picked MIA 51%Miss
- Apr 9MIA 117 @ ATL 111Picked MIA 61%Hit
- Jan 19ATL 109 @ MIA 108Picked MIA 72%Miss