Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints32
- Jalen JohnsonAssists5
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds10
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints28
- Cameron PayneAssists5
- Andre DrummondRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–107
- Q411.0Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound117–106
- Q413.4Tyrese Maxey misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot117–106
- Q420.9CJ McCollum makes driving layup117–106
- Q440.3Jalen Johnson defensive rebound114–106
- Q443.4VJ Edgecombe misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot114–106
- Q450.6Tyrese Maxey makes technical free throw115–107
- Q450.6Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2115–106
- Q450.6Jalen Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2114–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q338.1CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)ATL 86 – 81 PHI · ATL 57% → 69% +11ATL 57% → 69%+11 pts
- Q333.5Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three pointerATL 86 – 84 PHI · PHI 31% → 42% +11PHI 31% → 42%+11 pts
- Q410:03CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 92 – 86 PHI · ATL 63% → 75% +12ATL 63% → 75%+12 pts
- Q49:32Corey Kispert makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mouhamed Gueye assists)ATL 95 – 88 PHI · ATL 68% → 79% +11ATL 68% → 79%+11 pts
- Q49:18VJ Edgecombe makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cameron Payne assists)ATL 95 – 91 PHI · PHI 21% → 32% +12PHI 21% → 32%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -1.5
- ML ATL -105 / PHI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1.5
- PHI 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 44.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 120.0 – 121.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −8 | −90 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +38 Elo | ATL 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 116.213th of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.6 | Points allowed | 115.916th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 113.214th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 112.916th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.7 | Pace | 101.018th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 13th of 3016–15 | Road vs home | 15–1419th of 30 |
| 6th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 30 |
| 18th of 301476 | Elo rating | 148416th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−90 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–30 | 31–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–17 | 18–11 |
| Underdog | 18–13 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 29–27 | 28–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 7–2 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Dec 14PHI 117 @ ATL 120Picked ATL 61%Hit
- Nov 30ATL 142 @ PHI 134Picked PHI 56%Miss
- Apr 11ATL 124 @ PHI 110Picked ATL 84%Hit
- Mar 23PHI 119 @ ATL 132Picked ATL 79%Hit
- Mar 10PHI 123 @ ATL 132Picked ATL 78%Hit
- Feb 9ATL 127 @ PHI 121Picked PHI 53%Miss
- Jan 10PHI 132 @ ATL 139Picked ATL 50%Hit
- Dec 8ATL 114 @ PHI 125Picked PHI 71%Hit