Memphis Grizzlies at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- GG JacksonPoints28
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists6
- GG JacksonRebounds9
Heat- Andrew WigginsPoints28
- Norman PowellAssists6
- Kel'el WareRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–136
- Q40.1Grizzlies offensive team rebound120–136
- Q40.1Keshad Johnson blocks GG Jackson 's 26-foot three point pullup jump shot120–136
- Q45.6Grizzlies defensive team rebound120–136
- Q46.7Trevor Keels misses 28-foot three point jumper120–136
- Q421.1GG Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2120–136
- Q421.1GG Jackson makes free throw 1 of 2119–136
- Q421.1Kasparas Jakucionis personal foul118–136
- Q421.1GG Jackson defensive rebound118–136
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:18Ty Jerome makes 28-foot three pointerMEM 42 – 43 MIA · MEM 16% → 21% +5MEM 16% → 21%+5 pts
- Q27:42Tyler Herro makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)MEM 46 – 48 MIA · MIA 74% → 80% +6MIA 74% → 80%+6 pts
- Q24:38Javon Small makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotMEM 54 – 56 MIA · MEM 15% → 21% +5MEM 15% → 21%+5 pts
- Q21:39Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)MEM 62 – 66 MIA · MEM 13% → 18% +5MEM 13% → 18%+5 pts
- Q251.2Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MEM 64 – 71 MIA · MIA 82% → 87% +5MIA 82% → 87%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -11.5
- ML MEM +410 / MIA -550
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -7
- MIA 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 75.3%, market 81.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -432
- MEM +432 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 113.5 – 125.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MIA and MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −38 | +52 | MEM: Missing Cedric Coward −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +193 Elo | MIA 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 80.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 80.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 81.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 116.820th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +2.910th of 30 |
| 25th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 112.815th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 109.94th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.4 | Pace | 105.81st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–17 | Road vs home | 16–1113th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 20th of 301460 | Elo rating | 151615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−38 Elo- Cedric Coward hyperextended right knee−9 Elo
Heat
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–29 | 33–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–8 | 15–13 |
| Underdog | 15–21 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 25–29 | 28–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 3–2 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.