Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Ty JeromePoints19
- Ty JeromeAssists7
- Taylor HendricksRebounds10
Warriors- Pat SpencerPoints17
- Pat SpencerAssists7
- Al HorfordRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–114
- Q42.3Cam Spencer bad pass
turnover (Al Horford steals)113–114
- Q44.1Cam Spencer offensive rebound113–114
- Q46.4Jahmai Mashack misses driving layup113–114
- Q419.4Gui Santos makes driving layup (Al Horford assists)113–114
- Q423.0Al Horford offensive rebound113–112
- Q423.4Al Horford misses tip shot113–112
- Q423.4Al Horford offensive rebound113–112
- Q425.9Al Horford misses driving layup113–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:01Javon Small makes 30-foot three point jumper (Taylor Hendricks assists)MEM 111 – 101 GS · MEM 81% → 92% +10MEM 81% → 92%+10 pts
- Q43:17Gui Santos makes 27-foot three point jumper (De'Anthony Melton assists)MEM 113 – 108 GS · GS 8% → 21% +13GS 8% → 21%+13 pts
- Q42:46De'Anthony Melton makes running layupMEM 113 – 110 GS · GS 18% → 32% +14GS 18% → 32%+14 pts
- Q42:00Moses Moody makes driving layupMEM 113 – 112 GS · GS 27% → 46% +19GS 27% → 46%+19 pts
- Q419.4Gui Santos makes driving layup (Al Horford assists)MEM 113 – 114 GS · GS 28% → 76% +47GS 28% → 76%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- GS -9.5
- ML MEM +310 / GS -395
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3
- GS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.4 pts
- GS: Elo 61.2%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- GS -327
- MEM +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 104.5 – 114.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −30 | −71 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −29 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +79 Elo | GS 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 67.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 115.616th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 113.510th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.2 | Margin | +2.112th of 30 |
| 25th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 113.115th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 111.08th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.4 | Pace | 101.816th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 21st of 309–15 | Road vs home | 17–97th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 21st of 301459 | Elo rating | 154313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−71 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis left achilles tendon−29 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–29 | 25–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 18–20 |
| Underdog | 13–21 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 24–27 | 30–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–6 GS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Oct 27MEM 118 @ GS 131Picked GS 74%Hit
- Apr 1GS 134 @ MEM 125Picked GS 57%Hit
- Jan 4MEM 113 @ GS 121Picked GS 57%Hit
- Dec 19GS 93 @ MEM 144Picked MEM 53%Hit
- Nov 15MEM 118 @ GS 123Picked GS 72%Hit
- Mar 20MEM 116 @ GS 137Picked GS 70%Hit
- Feb 2GS 121 @ MEM 101Picked MEM 50%Miss
- Jan 15GS 107 @ MEM 116Picked GS 53%Miss