Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Isaiah CollierPoints24
- Isaiah CollierAssists5
- Cody WilliamsRebounds9
Grizzlies- Olivier-Maxence ProsperPoints23
- Cam SpencerAssists10
- Lawson LoveringRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–123
- Q41.6Jahmai Mashack defensive rebound114–123
- Q45.2Isaiah Collier misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot114–123
- Q410.2Javon Small makes free throw 2 of 2114–123
- Q410.2Javon Small makes free throw 1 of 2114–122
- Q410.2Isaiah Collier personal take foul114–121
- Q410.2Kyle Filipowski bad pass
turnover (Javon Small steals)114–121
- Q412.6Javon Small makes free throw 2 of 2114–121
- Q412.6Javon Small makes free throw 1 of 2114–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:48GG Jackson makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotUTAH 75 – 69 MEM · MEM 25% → 34% +9MEM 25% → 34%+9 pts
- Q32:42Kyle Anderson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)UTAH 81 – 78 MEM · MEM 31% → 42% +11MEM 31% → 42%+11 pts
- Q32:20Blake Hinson makes 29-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)UTAH 84 – 79 MEM · UTAH 55% → 66% +11UTAH 55% → 66%+11 pts
- Q411:15Jahmai Mashack makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Wells assists)UTAH 88 – 92 MEM · MEM 57% → 69% +12MEM 57% → 69%+12 pts
- Q49:05Jaylen Wells makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)UTAH 92 – 100 MEM · MEM 74% → 84% +10MEM 74% → 84%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -2.5
- ML UTAH +114 / MEM -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -4
- MEM 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.5 pts
- MEM: Elo 65.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MEM -123
- UTAH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 117.5 – 120.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1348 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −40 | −82 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Ty Jerome −44, Scotty Pippen Jr. −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +113 Elo | MEM 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 57.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 115.319th of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.9 | Points allowed | 117.522nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−7.7 | Margin | −2.221st of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 111.125th of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.9 | Defense rating | 113.217th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.8 | Pace | 103.37th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 24th of 307–20 | Road vs home | 10–1523rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 27th of 301348 | Elo rating | 145422nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−82 Elo- Ty Jerome right calf−44 Elo
- Scotty Pippen Jr. left toe−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–25 | 24–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 26–23 | 15–21 |
| Overs–unders | 33–23 | 25–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 3–6 MEM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Dec 23MEM 137 @ UTAH 128Picked MEM 61%Hit
- Dec 12UTAH 130 @ MEM 126Picked MEM 71%Miss
- Mar 25MEM 140 @ UTAH 103Picked MEM 81%Hit
- Mar 12UTAH 115 @ MEM 122Picked MEM 81%Hit
- Jan 25UTAH 103 @ MEM 125Picked MEM 81%Hit
- Oct 23MEM 126 @ UTAH 124Picked MEM 55%Hit
- Nov 29UTAH 91 @ MEM 105Picked MEM 53%Hit
- Nov 10UTAH 127 @ MEM 121Picked MEM 59%Miss