Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jrue HolidayPoints31
- Jrue HolidayAssists7
- Donovan ClinganRebounds18
Jazz- Brice SensabaughPoints28
- Isaiah CollierAssists9
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–119
- Q410.7shot clock turnover135–119
- Q434.8Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 1 of 1135–119
- Q434.8Javonte Cooke shooting foul135–118
- Q434.8Brice Sensabaugh makes 4-foot pullup jump shot135–118
- Q450.6Cody Williams enters the game for Isaiah Collier135–116
- Q450.6Sidy Cissoko makes free throw 1 of 1135–116
- Q450.6Yang Hansen enters the game for Toumani Camara134–116
- Q450.6Blake Wesley enters the game for Vit Krejci134–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:35Kyle Filipowski makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ace Bailey assists)POR 56 – 59 UTAH · UTAH 37% → 46% +8UTAH 37% → 46%+8 pts
- Q254.1Toumani Camara makes 27-foot three point jumper (Vit Krejci assists)POR 59 – 61 UTAH · POR 48% → 57% +9POR 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q46:47Blake Hinson makes 25-foot three point jumper (John Konchar assists)POR 111 – 108 UTAH · UTAH 16% → 28% +12UTAH 16% → 28%+12 pts
- Q46:28Jerami Grant makes driving layup (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 113 – 108 UTAH · POR 72% → 81% +9POR 72% → 81%+9 pts
- Q46:07Sidy Cissoko makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)POR 116 – 108 UTAH · POR 81% → 91% +10POR 81% → 91%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- POR -6.5
- ML POR -230 / UTAH +190
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -2.5
- POR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- POR: Elo 59.4%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- POR -202
- UTAH +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 121.5 – 115.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1358 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | UTAH and POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −26 | −28 | POR: Missing Deni Avdija −36, Robert Williams III −17, Shaedon Sharpe −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +66 Elo | POR 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 58.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 118.36th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 125.830th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.3 | Margin | −7.528th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 112.617th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 119.830th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.5 | Pace | 103.83rd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 20th of 3010–16 | Road vs home | 11–1725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 15153rd of 30 |
| 20th of 301459 | Elo rating | 135827th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−26 Elo- Deni Avdija lower back injury management−36 Elo
- Robert Williams III left knee injury management−17 Elo
- Shaedon Sharpe strained left calf−14 Elo
Jazz
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–26 | 31–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 19–15 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders | 30–25 | 32–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 5–5 UTAH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Jan 5UTAH 117 @ POR 137Picked POR 67%Hit
- Oct 29POR 136 @ UTAH 134Picked POR 58%Hit
- Apr 9POR 126 @ UTAH 133Picked POR 69%Miss
- Feb 24POR 114 @ UTAH 112Picked POR 72%Hit
- Dec 26UTAH 120 @ POR 122Picked POR 59%Hit
- Dec 6UTAH 141 @ POR 99Picked POR 61%Miss
- Dec 14UTAH 122 @ POR 114Picked POR 58%Miss
- Dec 2POR 113 @ UTAH 118Picked UTAH 53%Hit