Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jrue HolidayPoints23
- Blake WesleyAssists6
- Donovan ClinganRebounds9
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints41
- Jaden McDanielsAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–133
- Q46.8shot clock turnover109–133
- Q430.8Rayan Rupert makes 7-foot two point shot109–133
- Q436.6Jaylen Clark out of bounds lost ball turnover107–133
- Q441.4Enrique Freeman defensive rebound107–133
- Q444.5Enrique Freeman blocks Javonte Cooke's layup107–133
- Q451.7Javonte Cooke defensive rebound107–133
- Q453.6Joan Beringer misses layup107–133
- Q41:03Yang Hansen makes tip in dunk107–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:12Scoot Henderson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Blake Wesley assists)POR 24 – 26 MIN · POR 21% → 27% +6POR 21% → 27%+6 pts
- Q145.8Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)POR 24 – 29 MIN · MIN 73% → 79% +6MIN 73% → 79%+6 pts
- Q22:35Jerami Grant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 49 – 54 MIN · POR 16% → 22% +6POR 16% → 22%+6 pts
- Q21:45Naz Reid makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)POR 49 – 57 MIN · MIN 78% → 84% +6MIN 78% → 84%+6 pts
- Q310:01Donovan Clingan makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)POR 57 – 63 MIN · POR 14% → 20% +6POR 14% → 20%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -7.5
- ML POR +235 / MIN -290
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -4
- MIN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 65.6%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -249
- POR +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 115.0 – 122.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | +9 | POR: Missing Shaedon Sharpe −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | POR crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +112 Elo | MIN 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 68.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 119.45th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.0 | Points allowed | 114.912th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +4.67th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 115.76th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 111.210th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.4 | Pace | 102.710th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 20th of 3010–15 | Road vs home | 18–1010th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 149024th of 30 |
| 19th of 301471 | Elo rating | 156010th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+47 Elo- Shaedon Sharpe left calf strain−9 Elo
Timberwolves
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–25 | 24–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 18–26 |
| Underdog | 19–14 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 29–25 | 27–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 2–7 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Oct 22MIN 118 @ POR 114Picked MIN 63%Hit
- Feb 8POR 98 @ MIN 114Picked MIN 59%Hit
- Nov 13MIN 98 @ POR 106Picked MIN 80%Miss
- Nov 12MIN 108 @ POR 122Picked MIN 72%Miss
- Nov 8POR 102 @ MIN 127Picked MIN 84%Hit
- Mar 4POR 114 @ MIN 119Picked MIN 71%Hit
- Feb 15MIN 128 @ POR 91Picked MIN 73%Hit
- Feb 13MIN 121 @ POR 109Picked MIN 67%Hit