Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints20
- Nique CliffordAssists6
- Dylan CardwellRebounds10
Jazz- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points23
- Isaiah CollierAssists14
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–121
- Q417.1shot clock turnover93–121
- Q441.2Dylan Cardwell makes free throw 2 of 293–121
- Q441.2Kings offensive team rebound92–121
- Q441.2Dylan Cardwell misses free throw 1 of 292–121
- Q441.2Cody Williams shooting foul92–121
- Q448.6Vince Williams Jr. makes 24-foot three pointer (Cody Williams assists)92–121
- Q41:06Isaiah Stevens makes 8-foot jumper (Daeqwon Plowden assists)92–118
- Q41:07Daeqwon Plowden offensive rebound90–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:54Devin Carter makes 28-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 8 – 7 UTAH · SAC 32% → 38% +6SAC 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q18:41Lauri Markkanen makes 5-foot dunk (Jusuf Nurkic assists)SAC 8 – 9 UTAH · UTAH 62% → 66% +4UTAH 62% → 66%+4 pts
- Q18:04Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)SAC 8 – 12 UTAH · UTAH 66% → 72% +6UTAH 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q16:15Lauri Markkanen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)SAC 10 – 15 UTAH · UTAH 68% → 73% +6UTAH 68% → 73%+6 pts
- Q14:08Brice Sensabaugh makes 22-foot running jump shot (Isaiah Collier assists)SAC 13 – 24 UTAH · UTAH 79% → 83% +5UTAH 79% → 83%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jazz 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.7% of 394 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH -5.5
- ML SAC +170 / UTAH -205
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -3.5
- UTAH 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- UTAH: Elo 64.1%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -181
- SAC +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 112.0 – 117.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1366 | 1345 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −60 | +26 | SAC: Missing Domantas Sabonis −47, De'Andre Hunter −10 · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +100 Elo | UTAH 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 65.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 118.26th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 126.430th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.2 | Margin | −8.228th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 112.519th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.4 | Defense rating | 120.230th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.2 | Pace | 103.93rd of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 30th of 303–24 | Road vs home | 10–1725th of 30 |
| 1st of 301527 | Opponent Elo | 15202nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301366 | Elo rating | 134528th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−60 Elo- Domantas Sabonis left knee injury management−47 Elo
- De'Andre Hunter left eye−10 Elo
Jazz
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–34 | 30–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 19–30 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders | 27–28 | 32–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 8–1 UTAH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Nov 28SAC 119 @ UTAH 128Picked UTAH 56%Hit
- Oct 24UTAH 104 @ SAC 105Picked SAC 67%Hit
- Feb 26SAC 118 @ UTAH 101Picked SAC 77%Hit
- Dec 8UTAH 97 @ SAC 141Picked SAC 83%Hit
- Nov 16UTAH 117 @ SAC 121Picked SAC 71%Hit
- Oct 29SAC 113 @ UTAH 96Picked SAC 69%Hit
- Mar 31UTAH 106 @ SAC 127Picked SAC 75%Hit
- Dec 16UTAH 104 @ SAC 125Picked SAC 58%Hit